Aaron Plan · San Marcos, TX 78666

$250,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,985 sqft · SingleFamily · 181 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. Three bedrooms boast a private location near the front of the home, leading to an open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A versatile flex space is tucked away to the side, and a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Single-story living
• Flex space
• Full bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE LOCATION
• FLEX SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $250,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,059.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dezavala El (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 87% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1617 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,631 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,059
• List price: $250,999
• Delta: -0.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Stumpy St	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+1%)	2mo	$267,999	$134	89
112 Trinity River Holw	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-3%)	3mo	$266,999	$139	89
1629 Iron Truss Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-6%)	1mo	$237,999	$128	84
1605 Iron Truss Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-6%)	1mo	$236,999	$127	83
128 Trinity River Holw	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,162 (+9%)	1mo	$274,999	$127	81
205 Trinity River Holw	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-9%)	1mo	$222,999	$124	80
228 Trinity River Holw	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,162 (+9%)	3mo	$254,999	$118	79
305 Trinity River Holw	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-9%)	2mo	$219,999	$122	76
317 Trinity River Holw	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-9%)	1mo	$200,999	$112	76
129 Navidad River Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,202 (+11%)	2mo	$273,999	$124	73
120 Little Prairie Vly	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,157 (+9%)	1mo	$330,999	$153	71
220 Stumpy St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-8%)	3mo	$257,999	$142	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-53,450
• Equity at exit: $37,732

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-68,052
• Equity at exit: $21,880

Cash invested: $70,856 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 61 active · 59 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.5 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $253,999 ($135/sqft)
• Median days on market: 54 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1617
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,796/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $229,350

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-76	+0% $-164	+5% $-251	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-243	+0% $-164	+5% $-85	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-99	base $-164	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,265
• Closing costs: $7,592
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1802	$2,000	$1.11	10d	1	0.03mi
213 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,100	$0.97	82d	1	0.07mi
309 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	0d	1	0.12mi
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	119d	1	0.12mi
317 Trinity River Holw San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1802	$2,000	$1.11	10d	1	0.13mi
1525 Scull Rd San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,400	$1.54	10d	1	0.82mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	119d	1	1.12mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,900	$1.50	0d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-16
   days on market $250,999 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-08-15
   days on market $250,999 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-08-14
   days on market $250,999 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-08-13
   days on market $250,999 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-08-11
   days on market $250,999 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-08-10
   days on market $250,999 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-08-09
   days on market $250,999 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-08-08
   days on market $250,999 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-08-06
   days on market $250,999 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-08-05
    days on market $250,999 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-08-04
    days on market $250,999 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-08-03
    days on market $250,999 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-07-31
    days on market $250,999 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-07-30
    days on market $250,999 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-07-28
    days on market $250,999 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-07-26
    days on market $250,999 Active 160 DOM
17. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,999 Active 158 DOM
18. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,999 Active 157 DOM
19. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,999 Active 156 DOM
20. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,999 Active 155 DOM
21. 2026-07-20
    days on market $250,999 Active 154 DOM
22. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,999 Active 152 DOM
23. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,999 Active 151 DOM
24. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,999 Active 150 DOM
25. 2026-07-15
    days on market $250,999 Active 149 DOM
26. 2026-07-14
    days on market $250,999 Active 148 DOM
27. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,999 Active 147 DOM
28. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,999 Active 146 DOM
29. 2026-07-11
    days on market $250,999 Active 145 DOM
30. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,999 Active 144 DOM
31. 2026-07-09
    days on market $250,999 Active 143 DOM
32. 2026-07-07
    days on market $250,999 Active 141 DOM
33. 2026-07-06
    days on market $250,999 Active 140 DOM
34. 2026-07-05
    days on market $250,999 Active 139 DOM
35. 2026-07-03
    days on market $250,999 Active 137 DOM
36. 2026-07-02
    days on market $250,999 Active 136 DOM
37. 2026-07-01
    days on market $250,999 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-06-30
    days on market $250,999 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-06-29
    days on market $250,999 Active 133 DOM
40. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,999 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-06-27
    days on market $250,999 Active 131 DOM
42. 2026-06-26
    days on market $250,999 Active 130 DOM
43. 2026-06-24
    days on market $250,999 Active 128 DOM
44. 2026-06-22
    days on market $250,999 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-06-21
    days on market $250,999 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,999 Active 122 DOM
47. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,999 Active 121 DOM
48. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,999 Active 120 DOM
49. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,999 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,999 Active 117 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,175
• − Property taxes: −$3,796
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$7,362
• Taxable loss: −$6,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,530
• After-tax cash flow: $-436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a good condition exterior. It is move-in ready with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Dezavala El F TX #3,739/4,322 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Goodnight Middle F TX #1,536/1,662 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High San Marcos H S F TX #1,157/1,632 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $250,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $250,990 Zillow