3464 Sutherland Dr · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40517

$180,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,044 sqft · Townhouse public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $167k · 8% over $87/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated townhome with new vinyl plank flooring throughout the main floor, white kitchen cabinets, and new vanities in the bathrooms! Downstairs features kitchen, laundry, living room, and half bath. Upstairs features the two bedrooms and full bath. It is turn key and ready for its new owner! Roof is only a year old and HVAC is only 5 years old! HOA includes access to the community pool which is steps away from the back door! Conveniently located to grocery, restaurants, shopping and more!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Fishing pond
• $87 HOA

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• GAINESWAY PARK TRAILS
• FISHING POND
• QUICK ACCESS TO NEW CIRCLE RD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Gainesway; County: Fayette
• Financial info: Owner pays pool maintenance
• HOA & community: Has association with monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Includes garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Two stories; Other structure type
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built area 1,044 (building area total provided)
• Exterior features: Privacy wood fencing; In-ground pool; Neighborhood view; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedrooms count not specified separately)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (main level); Electric dryer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tates Creek Elementary School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #329 of 676 statewide, top 49%, 642 students, 70% FRL); Tates Creek Middle School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #105 of 217 statewide, top 51%, 769 students, 58% FRL); Tates Creek High School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #121 of 254 statewide, top 47%, 1,734 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 44% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $152,724 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3504 Sutherland Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,044 (0%)	10mo	$150,000	$144	88
3436 Sutherland Dr	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,102 (+6%)	2mo	$174,000	$158	87
3520 Sutherland Dr	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,102 (+6%)	7mo	$135,000	$123	81
1076 Armstrong Mill Rd Unit D	0.65mi	2/2.0	965 (-8%)	2mo	$145,000	$150	54
1080 Armstrong Mill Rd Unit A	0.64mi	2/2.0	966 (-8%)	4mo	$150,000	$155	52
1032 Armstrong Mill Rd Unit B	0.70mi	2/2.0	963 (-8%)	2mo	$160,000	$166	51
1036 Armstrong Mill Rd Unit D	0.70mi	2/2.0	970 (-7%)	5mo	$155,500	$160	49
1048 Armstrong Mill Rd Unit C	0.67mi	2/2.0	972 (-7%)	10mo	$145,000	$149	47
1060 Armstrong Mill Rd	0.66mi	2/2.0	966 (-8%)	12mo	$170,000	$176	45
3611 Leisure Creek Ct	0.65mi	2/1.5	1,149 (+10%)	14mo	$204,500	$178	41
3656 Leisure Creek Ct	0.73mi	2/2.5	1,185 (+14%)	3mo	$209,900	$177	37
1069 Chinoe Rd	0.70mi	2/1.5	1,168 (+12%)	12mo	$220,000	$188	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,648
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,718
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40517

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $798/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$87
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $85	+0% $34	+5% $-17	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $-26	+0% $34	+5% $94	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $80	base $34	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3448 Dixiana Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1161	$1,995	$1.72	25d	1	0.14mi
3339 Sutherland Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1108	$1,895	$1.71	15d	1	0.36mi
3522 Creekwood Dr Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,593	$1.90	15d	14	0.61mi
3260 Commodore Dr Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1229	$1,978	$1.61	15d	11	0.73mi
3650 Tates Creek Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	22d	11	0.75mi
3501 Pimlico Pkwy Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	832	$1,205	$1.45	15d	11	0.78mi
3375 Moundview Ct Unit B Lexington, KY	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,500	$1.30	15d	1	0.80mi
1197 Appian Crossing Way Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1066	$1,259	$1.18	25d	5	0.81mi
1176 Appian Crossing Way Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	970	$1,029	$1.06	25d	1	0.85mi
1391 Stephen Foster Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	15d	1	0.90mi
3628 Bold Bidder Dr Unit B Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,495	$1.07	25d	1	0.90mi
3504 Careto Ct Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	15d	1	0.92mi
3300 Montavesta Rd Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	872	$1,275	$1.46	22d	1	0.94mi
3612 River Park Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,695	$1.65	15d	1	0.94mi
1333 Ox Hill Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	15d	1	0.97mi
1179 Tatesbrook Dr Unit A Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1408	$1,500	$1.07	25d	1	1.03mi
1176 Tatesbrook Dr Unit A Lexington, KY	2.0	1.5	950	$1,400	$1.47	25d	1	1.04mi
1176 Tatesbrook Dr Unit A Lexington, KY	2.0	1.5	950	$1,400	$1.47	15d	1	1.04mi
1230 Trent Blvd Unit Labs Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	25d	1	1.12mi
3501 Windgate Way Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,350	$1.77	25d	1	1.15mi
2371 Chauvin Dr Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,499	$1.71	15d	2	1.19mi
3401 Gatewood Ct Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0–1.5	900	$989	$1.10	25d	5	1.25mi
2500 Alumni Dr Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	996	$1,492	$1.50	25d	1	1.26mi
3200 Baird Ct Unit A Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	25d	1	1.28mi
1552 Samara Glen Way Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1145	$1,550	$1.35	25d	1	1.29mi
3203 Paxson Ct Unit 3203 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	884	$1,100	$1.24	15d	1	1.29mi
1475 Vintage Cir Unit 1 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1306	$1,595	$1.22	22d	1	1.29mi
2020 Armstrong Mill Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,309	$1.62	15d	7	1.30mi
2653 Twinbrooke Ln Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	25d	1	1.30mi
2848 Yellowstone Pkwy Unit A Lexington, KY	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	15d	1	1.34mi
2844 Yellowstone Pkwy Unit C Lexington, KY	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	25d	1	1.35mi
2941 Winter Gdn Unit 4 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	25d	1	1.37mi
3573 Laredo Dr Lexington, KY	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1172	$1,320	$1.13	25d	3	1.38mi
427 Lancelot Ln Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,159	$1.10	25d	1	1.40mi
3900 Crosby Dr Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	773	$1,515	$1.96	15d	13	1.47mi
3500 Warwick Dr #27 Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,600	$1.45	15d	1	1.48mi
3500 Warwick Dr #50 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.5	914	$1,395	$1.53	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $87 · $1,044/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $180,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $180,000 Contingent 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $180,000 Contingent 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $180,000 Contingent 31 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $180,000 Contingent 30 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   historical Contingent
7. 2026-05-01
   listed $180,000 Active
8. 2023-06-15
   soldstatus $160,000 Closed 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Updated townhome with new vinyl plank flooring throughout the main floor, white kitchen cabinets, and new vanities in the bathrooms! Downstairs features kitchen, laundry, living room, and half bath. Upstairs features the two bedrooms and full bath. It is turn key and ready for its new owner! Roof is only a year old and HVAC is only 5 years old! HOA includes access to the community pool which is steps away from the back door! Conveniently located to grocery, restaurants, shopping and more!

9. 2023-05-14
   historical Contingent 493-char remark

   Show marketing remark (493 chars)

   Updated townhome with new vinyl plank flooring throughout the main floor, white kitchen cabinets, and new vanities in the bathrooms! Downstairs features kitchen, laundry, living room, and half bath. Upstairs features the two bedrooms and full bath. It is turn key and ready for its new owner! Roof is only a year old and HVAC is only 5 years old! HOA includes access to the community pool which is steps away from the back door! Conveniently located to grocery, restaurants, shopping and more!

10. 2023-05-11
    listed $150,000 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Updated townhome with new vinyl plank flooring throughout the main floor, white kitchen cabinets, and new vanities in the bathrooms! Downstairs features kitchen, laundry, living room, and half bath. Upstairs features the two bedrooms and full bath. It is turn key and ready for its new owner! Roof is only a year old and HVAC is only 5 years old! HOA includes access to the community pool which is steps away from the back door! Conveniently located to grocery, restaurants, shopping and more!

11. 2020-07-20
    soldstatus $63,000
12. 2017-01-28
    historical
13. 2017-01-06
    status Active
14. 2017-01-04
    historical
15. 2016-11-18
    price $60,000
16. 2016-09-26
    status Active
17. 2016-09-20
    status Pending
18. 2016-08-12
    price $62,000
19. 2016-07-25
    price $64,000
20. 2016-07-16
    price $65,000
21. 2016-07-07
    listed $66,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $798 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,548 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$750/yr (+$62/mo · 93.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$798
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − HOA: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$640
• After-tax cash flow: $1,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 35,656
• Household income: $53,670
• Rent vs Own: 64.3% rent · 35.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2743.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.53%
• Current HPI: 248.0466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.52%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $180,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-06-15 Sold (MLS) $160,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-05-14 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2023-05-11 Listed $150,000 ImagineMLS
• 2020-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-28 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2017-01-06 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2017-01-04 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2016-11-18 Price Changed $60,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-09-26 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2016-09-20 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2016-08-12 Price Changed $62,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-07-25 Price Changed $64,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-07-16 Price Changed $65,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-07-07 Listed $66,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2015): $798 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.