123 Private Road 7827 · Hawk Cove, TX 75169

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1977 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super Fixer Upper on 1.5 acres! Handyman's Special is a three bedroom, one bathroom with main bedroom & bath downstairs along with living room and kitchen with eating area. Downstairs has ceramic tile. Upstairs is carpeted. Kitchen has electric range and dishwasher Bathroom includes a separate shower stall, bathtub,pedestal & commode. Outside are mature trees, greenhouse, two storage bldgs and some chicken coops. Wills Point ISD. BE CAREFUL WHEN WALKING THE PROPERTY - NOTHING IS KNOW ABOUT THE CONDITION OF THE PROPERTY. Will not qualify for FHA, VA or USDA loan.

Key facts

• 1.50 acres
• Storage building
• Chicken coop

Tags

• 1.50 ACRES
• STORAGE BUILDING
• CHICKEN COOP
• CLOSE TO LAKE TAWAKONI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residential, single-family; Lot is approximately 1.5 acres (Acreage)
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Co-op water; Septic
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Built in 1977; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Year built: 1977
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (12 x 13); Two additional bedrooms on second level (each 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Eat-in kitchen; Storage available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.6% in Hawk Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,499 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,199
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $26,456
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,098/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,191

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $433	-5% $390	+0% $348	+5% $305	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $283	+0% $348	+5% $412	+10% $476
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $386	base $348	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 345-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,647/yr (+$137/mo · 150.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,098
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$438
• After-tax cash flow: $3,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hawk Cove

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1499
• US rank: #25625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+50.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-10-12 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-09-06 Listed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2003-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.