81 Colonial Ct #81 · Smithville, NJ 08205

$164,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 956 sqft · Condo · 44 Days on market

Built 1987 $150/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER> NO MORE SHOWINGS Top floor unit with balcony. Currently tenant occupied. Month to month. Tenant is looking for a new place but has not found anything yet. She would be willing to stay. Current rent is $1100 Pictures are from prior to current tenant moving in. They should be used as a reference for layout only as condition is not the same.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Lovely deck
• Top-floor unit

Tags

• TOP-FLOOR UNIT
• MATTIX CROSSING COMMUNITY
• LOVELY DECK
• PRIVATE FULL BATH
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• IN-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $150; Association fees cover amenities, insurance, maintenance, management, trash, and pool; Association managed by on-site professionals

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned exterior parking; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Condo (Mattix Crossing); Top floor unit; Unit has 1 level; Building is 3–5 stories; Building age over 25 years
• Construction: Vinyl exterior
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; No waterfront; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Top floor unit; One-level unit
• Flooring: Wall-to-wall carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Refrigerator; Washer; Dining area; Wall-to-wall carpet; Master bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.9% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#402 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #319 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 8700% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $165k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,049 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.39%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,492
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $16,438
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08205

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $342	+0% $285	+5% $228	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $206	+0% $285	+5% $363	+10% $442
Rate	-1.0pp $368	-0.5pp $327	base $285	+0.5pp $242	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Iroquois Dr Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	855	$1,800	$2.11	14d	1	0.31mi
31 Arapaho Pl Unit 1 Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	855	$2,100	$2.46	14d	1	0.66mi
180 Walden Way Galloway, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1037	$2,319	$2.24	2d	1	0.71mi
64 Mattix Run Galloway, NJ	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,800	$1.79	22d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,999 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,999 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,999 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,999 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,999 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,999 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,999 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,999 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,999 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,999 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,999 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,999 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,999 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,999 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    listed $1,875
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $164,999 Active 630-char remark
19. 2023-05-31
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    SELLER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER> NO MORE SHOWINGS Top floor unit with balcony. Currently tenant occupied. Month to month. Tenant is looking for a new place but has not found anything yet. She would be willing to stay. Current rent is $1100 Pictures are from prior to current tenant moving in. They should be used as a reference for layout only as condition is not the same.

20. 2023-05-12
    historical Under Contract 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    SELLER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER> NO MORE SHOWINGS Top floor unit with balcony. Currently tenant occupied. Month to month. Tenant is looking for a new place but has not found anything yet. She would be willing to stay. Current rent is $1100 Pictures are from prior to current tenant moving in. They should be used as a reference for layout only as condition is not the same.

21. 2023-04-23
    listed $109,900 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    SELLER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER> NO MORE SHOWINGS Top floor unit with balcony. Currently tenant occupied. Month to month. Tenant is looking for a new place but has not found anything yet. She would be willing to stay. Current rent is $1100 Pictures are from prior to current tenant moving in. They should be used as a reference for layout only as condition is not the same.

22. 2004-12-28
    soldstatus $105,060

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Third floor unit, newer carpets, tenant occupied until Sept. 30 or may move earlier.

23. 2004-11-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Third floor unit, newer carpets, tenant occupied until Sept. 30 or may move earlier.

24. 2004-06-09
    listed $105,000

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Third floor unit, newer carpets, tenant occupied until Sept. 30 or may move earlier.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $3,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Egg Harbor Regional High School District
• NCES district ID: 3406060
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,324
• Composite: 28.94/100
• National rank: #6629
• State rank: #319 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #13992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment B- Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 28,877
• Household income: $93,370
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.12%
• Current HPI: 315.4814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-98.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,875 SJSRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $164,999 SJSRMLS
• 2023-05-31 Sold (MLS) $100,000 SJSRMLS
• 2023-05-12 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2023-04-23 Listed $109,900 SJSRMLS
• 2004-12-28 Sold (MLS) $105,060 SJSRMLS
• 2004-11-09 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2004-06-09 Listed $105,000 SJSRMLS