11123 Gatesden Dr · Houston, TX 77377

$264,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1985 8,176 sqft lot $108/sqft · 8% below area Est $288k · 8% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful home located in a quiet and family-friendly neighborhood in Tomball, offering comfort, convenience, and easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. This well-maintained property features a spacious and functional layout with bright living areas, a modern kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining, and comfortable bedrooms designed for relaxation. The open-concept design allows natural light to flow throughout the home, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy a generous backyard ideal for gatherings, gardening, or simply unwinding after a long day. With its great location and move-in ready condition, this home is perfect for families or anyone looking to enjoy suburban living while staying close to city conveniences. Please schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Quiet neighborhood
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• MOVE-IN READY CONDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakewood El (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 788 students, 30% FRL); Willow Wood J H (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 834 students, 31% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 730 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,894 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,349
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -8.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11214 Middleburgh Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,460 (0%)	4mo	$270,000	$110	89
15815 Laurel Cv	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,478 (+1%)	4mo	$410,000	$165	67
11619 Buck Springs Trl	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,520 (+2%)	6mo	$349,900	$139	66
15511 Artoys Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,216 (-10%)	4mo	$280,000	$126	65
11606 Gatesden Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,217 (-10%)	3mo	$290,000	$131	62
11722 Gray Forest Trl	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,448 (-0%)	6mo	$379,000	$155	60
11811 Lakewood Crossing Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,471 (+0%)	3mo	$415,000	$168	59
15603 Lakewood Terrace Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,697 (+10%)	1mo	$368,000	$136	58
11607 Buck Springs Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,126 (-14%)	4mo	$375,000	$176	56
16107 Woodbend Trail Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,265 (-8%)	4mo	$299,900	$132	51
15902 Timber Grove Ct N	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,748 (+12%)	3mo	$465,000	$169	41
11326 Lakewood Field Ct	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,749 (+12%)	1mo	$380,000	$138	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-61,576
• Equity at exit: $39,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-94,862
• Equity at exit: $22,911

Cash invested: $74,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 730
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$517 /mo · $6,210/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $231,894

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-112	+0% $-187	+5% $-262	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-280	+0% $-187	+5% $-95	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-54	-0.5pp $-120	base $-187	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,248
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16044 Sweetwater Fields Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	3.0	2069	$2,095	$1.01	45d	1	1.23mi
9331 Charter Pine St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,145	$1.19	24d	1	1.27mi
17314 Granberry Gate Dr Tomball, TX	4.0	2.0	2276	$2,150	$0.94	0d	1	1.34mi
14715 Spring Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1793	$2,100	$1.17	45d	1	1.35mi
17326 Granberry Gate Dr Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	2232	$2,400	$1.08	24d	1	1.36mi
12311 Oak Park Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2347	$2,300	$0.98	22d	1	1.43mi
17518 Elverson Oaks Dr Tomball, TX	4.0	2.5	2311	$3,500	$1.51	45d	1	1.45mi
14700 Vintage Preserve Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1214	$2,743	$2.26	0d	19	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,990 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,990 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,990 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $264,990 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful home located in a quiet and family-friendly neighborhood in Tomball, offering comfort, convenience, and easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. This well-maintained property features a spacious and functional layout with bright living areas, a modern kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining, and comfortable bedrooms designed for relaxation. The open-concept design allows natural light to flow throughout the home, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy a generous backyard ideal for gatherings, gardening, or simply unwinding after a long day. With its great location and move-in ready condition, this home is perfect for families or anyone looking to enjoy suburban living while staying close to city conveniences. Please schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-09
    price $269,990 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful home located in a quiet and family-friendly neighborhood in Tomball, offering comfort, convenience, and easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. This well-maintained property features a spacious and functional layout with bright living areas, a modern kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining, and comfortable bedrooms designed for relaxation. The open-concept design allows natural light to flow throughout the home, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy a generous backyard ideal for gatherings, gardening, or simply unwinding after a long day. With its great location and move-in ready condition, this home is perfect for families or anyone looking to enjoy suburban living while staying close to city conveniences. Please schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-03-24
    listed $279,990 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful home located in a quiet and family-friendly neighborhood in Tomball, offering comfort, convenience, and easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. This well-maintained property features a spacious and functional layout with bright living areas, a modern kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining, and comfortable bedrooms designed for relaxation. The open-concept design allows natural light to flow throughout the home, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Enjoy a generous backyard ideal for gatherings, gardening, or simply unwinding after a long day. With its great location and move-in ready condition, this home is perfect for families or anyone looking to enjoy suburban living while staying close to city conveniences. Please schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-02-06
    listed $2,300
20. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus
21. 2021-06-23
    soldstatus Sold 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Very nice home on an oversized lot in Lakewood Village featuring large family room and den. Recent carpet upstairs and laminate flooring downstairs. A/C is 3 years old. Easy access off of FM 249 for fast commute to Beltway and the Grand Parkway. Tons of shopping plazas, a multitude of dining options and 5 minutes from Willowbrook.

22. 2021-05-25
    status Pending 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Very nice home on an oversized lot in Lakewood Village featuring large family room and den. Recent carpet upstairs and laminate flooring downstairs. A/C is 3 years old. Easy access off of FM 249 for fast commute to Beltway and the Grand Parkway. Tons of shopping plazas, a multitude of dining options and 5 minutes from Willowbrook.

23. 2021-05-18
    status Option Pending 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Very nice home on an oversized lot in Lakewood Village featuring large family room and den. Recent carpet upstairs and laminate flooring downstairs. A/C is 3 years old. Easy access off of FM 249 for fast commute to Beltway and the Grand Parkway. Tons of shopping plazas, a multitude of dining options and 5 minutes from Willowbrook.

24. 2021-05-14
    listed $229,990 Active 332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (332 chars)

    Very nice home on an oversized lot in Lakewood Village featuring large family room and den. Recent carpet upstairs and laminate flooring downstairs. A/C is 3 years old. Easy access off of FM 249 for fast commute to Beltway and the Grand Parkway. Tons of shopping plazas, a multitude of dining options and 5 minutes from Willowbrook.

25. 2009-01-27
    historical
26. 2008-10-07
    listed $139,900
27. 2008-09-29
    historical
28. 2008-08-15
    listed $139,900
29. 2007-03-21
    soldstatus
30. 2001-08-25
    historical
31. 2001-05-16
    listed $125,000
32. 1999-09-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,210 · $517/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,210 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$6,210
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+112.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2021-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-14 Listed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2009-01-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-10-07 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2008-09-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-08-15 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2007-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-08-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-05-16 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 1999-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,210 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.