12 Susan St · Aquia Harbour, VA 22556

$132,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily · 116 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition 1,300 sqft lot $134/sqft · 22% above area Est $108k · 22% over ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautifully renovated 3- Bedroom, 2-Bath Modular home located in the desirable Fox village Subdivision. With generous space throughout, this home features elegant granite counter tops and convenient washer and dryer hook ups. Close to Stafford market shopping center and various shopping options. This is a fantastic opportunity to own a hidden gem at a great price. Don't miss out on this chance to make it your own! Contact us today for more information or to schedule a viewing! Don't Let Financing stop you us for specific information! Ground Rent Fee $1,100.00

Key facts

• Renovated
• Granite counter tops
• 1,300 sq ft lot

Tags

• RENOVATED
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOK UPS
• FOX VILLAGE SUBDIVISION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $132k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $784 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $132k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.5% in Aquia Harbour — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#254 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Oaks Elementary (math 50% / reading 61%, grade C, #640 of 1,108 statewide, top 58%, 894 students, 32% FRL); Shirley C. Heim Middle (math 26% / reading 50%, grade F, #313 of 342 statewide, top 92%, 980 students, 57% FRL); North Stafford High (math 64% / reading 82%, grade B+, #129 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,925 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 22% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $916 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,575 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.35%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,450
• List price: $132,500
• Delta: 22.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Mary Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+1%)	1mo	$140,000	$140	91
34 Crater Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+8%)	2mo	$109,000	$102	80
11 Cliff Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	980 (-1%)	13mo	$90,000	$92	74
3095 Richmond Hwy	0.58mi	3/1.0	960 (-3%)	18mo	$249,700	$260	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $28,485
• Equity at exit: $19,756

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $89,220
• Equity at exit: $11,456

Cash invested: $37,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22556

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$166 /mo · $1,988/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $784

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,159

Max offer price $132,500

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $875	-5% $830	+0% $784	+5% $738	+10% $692
Rent	-10% $614	-5% $699	+0% $784	+5% $869	+10% $954
Rate	-1.0pp $851	-0.5pp $818	base $784	+0.5pp $750	+1.0pp $715

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,125
• Closing costs: $3,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Grosvenor Ln #3 Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,900	$2.27	5d	1	0.12mi
102 Piccadilly Ln Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,695	$2.03	45d	1	0.13mi
102 Picadilly Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,749	$2.09	26d	1	0.13mi
200 Dover Pl #202 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	26d	1	0.13mi
202 Chesterfield Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	7d	1	1.15mi
200 Chesterfield Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	26d	1	1.16mi
200 Chesterfield Ln #203 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,850	$1.80	45d	1	1.16mi
102 Chesterfield Ln #201 Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	6d	1	1.17mi
15 Town Square Cir Stafford, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,446	$2.30	14d	9	1.17mi
100 Chesterfield Ln Stafford, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	5d	1	1.18mi
3354 Richmond Hwy Stafford, VA	3.0	1.0	872	$2,400	$2.75	45d	1	1.19mi
20 Stonegate Pl Stafford, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1058	$2,488	$2.35	0d	5	1.23mi
106 Wind Ridge Dr Stafford, VA	2.0	1.5	902	$1,700	$1.88	22d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $132,500 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,500 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,500 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,500 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,500 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,500 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $132,500 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,500 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $132,500 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,500 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $132,500 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,500 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,500 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,500 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,500 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $132,500 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Discover this beautifully renovated 3- Bedroom, 2-Bath Modular home located in the desirable Fox village Subdivision. With generous space throughout, this home features elegant granite counter tops and convenient washer and dryer hook ups. Close to Stafford market shopping center and various shopping options. This is a fantastic opportunity to own a hidden gem at a great price. Don't miss out on this chance to make it your own! Contact us today for more information or to schedule a viewing! Don't Let Financing stop you us for specific information! Ground Rent Fee $1,100.00

17. 2026-03-18
    price $140,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Discover this beautifully renovated 3- Bedroom, 2-Bath Modular home located in the desirable Fox village Subdivision. With generous space throughout, this home features elegant granite counter tops and convenient washer and dryer hook ups. Close to Stafford market shopping center and various shopping options. This is a fantastic opportunity to own a hidden gem at a great price. Don't miss out on this chance to make it your own! Contact us today for more information or to schedule a viewing! Don't Let Financing stop you us for specific information! Ground Rent Fee $1,100.00

18. 2026-02-25
    listed $145,000 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Discover this beautifully renovated 3- Bedroom, 2-Bath Modular home located in the desirable Fox village Subdivision. With generous space throughout, this home features elegant granite counter tops and convenient washer and dryer hook ups. Close to Stafford market shopping center and various shopping options. This is a fantastic opportunity to own a hidden gem at a great price. Don't miss out on this chance to make it your own! Contact us today for more information or to schedule a viewing! Don't Let Financing stop you us for specific information! Ground Rent Fee $1,100.00

19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-09-11
    price $144,000
21. 2025-09-03
    listed $145,000 Active
22. 2025-08-31
    historical
23. 2025-05-31
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,422
• − Property taxes: −$1,988
• − Insurance: −$662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$3,855
• Taxable income: $7,758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,862
• After-tax cash flow: $7,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath modular home is move-in ready with new flooring, cabinets, and appliances. It offers a good condition score and is located in a desirable Fox Village Subdivision.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard and shed improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Add a small patio or deck — A small outdoor space can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained yard and shed improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Add a small patio or deck — A small outdoor space can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Aquia Harbour

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #8617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,785
• Household income: $137,287
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 332.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.72%
• Current HPI: 284.4747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $132,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $144,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-31 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS