404 S Mill St · Flatonia, TX 78941

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Other · 241 Days on market

Built 2001 0.36 ac lot $129/sqft · 19% above area Est $164k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home on a corner lot in the charming town of Flatonia. This home has been tastefully remodeled throughout and also features a metal roof to ensure durability for years to come. Outside you'll find two large storage buildings also constructed out of metal for all of your personal belongings. Being just minutes from US 90 and I-10 you'll be sure to have easy travel in either direction. Come take a look at this​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ today.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Minutes from us 90
• Minutes from i-10

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• MINUTES FROM US 90
• MINUTES FROM I-10

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.7% in Flatonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#599 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Flatonia ISD (rural): math 69% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #43 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.54%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,950
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 18.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $52,036
• Equity at exit: $85,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $144,768
• Equity at exit: $130,419

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78941

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $808/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 223 DOM
15. 2025-10-20
    listed $195,000 Active 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Beautiful home on a corner lot in the charming town of Flatonia. This home has been tastefully remodeled throughout and also features a metal roof to ensure durability for years to come. Outside you'll find two large storage buildings also constructed out of metal for all of your personal belongings. Being just minutes from US 90 and I-10 you'll be sure to have easy travel in either direction. Come take a look at this​​‌​​​​‌​​‌‌​‌‌​​​‌‌​​‌​​​‌‌​​‌​ today.

16. 2025-08-18
    soldstatus
17. 2001-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $808 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,761/yr (+$230/mo · 341.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$808
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $2,683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$644
• After-tax cash flow: $5,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flatonia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819280
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,018
• Composite: 54.38/100
• National rank: #1359
• State rank: #43 of 826 in TX

Livability — Flatonia

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #599
• US rank: #11419

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flatonia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,343 people
• By 2030: 26,940 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 27,898 · +5.9%
• By 2050: 28,623 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 31,155 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 31,557 · +19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Current HPI: 228.938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-20 Listed $195,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $808 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.