1740 E Joy Ranch Rd · New River, AZ 85086

$360,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1998 1.49 ac lot $250/sqft · 11% below area Est $409k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come and see this 4 bed, 2 bath mobile home now on the market! Located on a huge 1.4 acre lot w/a corral, stalls, and tack room for horses, this is sure to be the home for you! Lovely front deck and carport parking. Inside you will find a spacious open floor plan w/gorgeous laminate & Saltillo tile flooring in all the right places, as well as designer palette throughout. The kitchen is comprised of ample wood cabinetry, an island w/a sink & tile counters, and peninsula w/breakfast bar. Generously-sized bedrooms and main suite featuring its very own private bath. The backyard covered patio is the perfect place to sit back and enjoy a relaxing autumn evening! What are you waiting for? Call now!

Key facts

• 1.49 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees; Biking/walking path in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 4 covered parking spaces; 4 carport spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Water hauled
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Chain link and wrought iron fencing; Natural desert front and back; Dirt front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Non-laminate counters; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Full bath in master bedroom; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hook-ups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.9% in New River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#278 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Desert Mountain School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #215 of 1,109 statewide, top 20%, 472 students, 23% FRL); Desert Sky Middle School (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 47% FRL); Boulder Creek High School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #55 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 2,375 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $360k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,793 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,279
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: -12.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1704 E Desert Ranch Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+1%)	15mo	$419,900	$288	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-55,928
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-56,489
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85086

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,670

Max offer price $360,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $203	+0% $101	+5% $-1	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-10	+0% $101	+5% $211	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $193	base $101	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1033 E Irvine Rd Unit A Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1835	$2,800	$1.53	19d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    status Active 47-char remark
16. 2026-05-07
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 47-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $360,000 Active 47-char remark
18. 2025-08-15
    soldstatus $100,000
19. 2025-03-01
    historical
20. 2024-12-10
    price $380,000
21. 2024-11-04
    price $390,000
22. 2024-09-30
    price $400,000
23. 2024-09-23
    price $410,000
24. 2024-08-27
    listed $425,000 Active
25. 2022-01-07
    soldstatus $299,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Come and see this 4 bed, 2 bath mobile home now on the market! Located on a huge 1.4 acre lot w/a corral, stalls, and tack room for horses, this is sure to be the home for you! Lovely front deck and carport parking. Inside you will find a spacious open floor plan w/gorgeous laminate & Saltillo tile flooring in all the right places, as well as designer palette throughout. The kitchen is comprised of ample wood cabinetry, an island w/a sink & tile counters, and peninsula w/breakfast bar. Generously-sized bedrooms and main suite featuring its very own private bath. The backyard covered patio is the perfect place to sit back and enjoy a relaxing autumn evening! What are you waiting for? Call now!

26. 2021-12-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Come and see this 4 bed, 2 bath mobile home now on the market! Located on a huge 1.4 acre lot w/a corral, stalls, and tack room for horses, this is sure to be the home for you! Lovely front deck and carport parking. Inside you will find a spacious open floor plan w/gorgeous laminate & Saltillo tile flooring in all the right places, as well as designer palette throughout. The kitchen is comprised of ample wood cabinetry, an island w/a sink & tile counters, and peninsula w/breakfast bar. Generously-sized bedrooms and main suite featuring its very own private bath. The backyard covered patio is the perfect place to sit back and enjoy a relaxing autumn evening! What are you waiting for? Call now!

27. 2021-10-28
    listed $299,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Come and see this 4 bed, 2 bath mobile home now on the market! Located on a huge 1.4 acre lot w/a corral, stalls, and tack room for horses, this is sure to be the home for you! Lovely front deck and carport parking. Inside you will find a spacious open floor plan w/gorgeous laminate & Saltillo tile flooring in all the right places, as well as designer palette throughout. The kitchen is comprised of ample wood cabinetry, an island w/a sink & tile counters, and peninsula w/breakfast bar. Generously-sized bedrooms and main suite featuring its very own private bath. The backyard covered patio is the perfect place to sit back and enjoy a relaxing autumn evening! What are you waiting for? Call now!

28. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed
29. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus $165,000
30. 2018-05-31
    status Pending
31. 2018-05-21
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
32. 2018-03-01
    price $165,000
33. 2018-01-29
    listed $175,000 Active
34. 2016-12-30
    historical
35. 2016-04-11
    price $179,500
36. 2016-02-17
    price $195,000
37. 2015-07-19
    status Active
38. 2015-07-19
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
39. 2014-12-02
    listed $210,000 Active
40. 2005-10-06
    soldstatus $210,000
41. 2005-10-05
    soldstatus $210,000
42. 2005-09-22
    historical
43. 2005-08-19
    listed $250,000
44. 1999-07-26
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,518/yr (+$126/mo · 176.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,686
• − Management: −$2,686
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$5,093
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,222
• After-tax cash flow: $2,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New River

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #24012

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New River, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 43,369
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,270
• Household income: $121,676
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.19%
• Current HPI: 305.1539
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+480.6% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $380,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $390,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $400,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $410,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-27 Listed $425,000 ARMLS
• 2022-01-07 Sold (MLS) $299,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-10-28 Listed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-08 Sold (MLS) $165,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-05-21 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-03-01 Price Changed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-29 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2016-12-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-04-11 Price Changed $179,500 ARMLS
• 2016-02-17 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2015-07-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2015-07-19 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2014-12-02 Listed $210,000 ARMLS
• 2005-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-05 Sold (MLS) $210,000 ARMLS
• 2005-09-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-08-19 Listed $250,000 ARMLS
• 1999-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.