Newlin Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$230,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 471 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $230,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,164.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $231k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 471 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $185,092 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 471 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,164
• List price: $230,990
• Delta: -10.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16339 Orange Blossom Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	3mo	$273,990	$186	98
15716 Plum Brook Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	0mo	$269,990	$183	95
15700 Plum Brook Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	1mo	$269,991	$183	94
15709 Plum Brook Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	1mo	$267,990	$182	93
16435 Blossom Grove Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+5%)	4mo	$282,900	$182	86
15636 Plum Brook Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+5%)	2mo	$279,900	$180	85
15818 Berry Hill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+5%)	4mo	$279,900	$180	83
15543 Caramel Springs Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+5%)	0mo	$279,900	$180	83
15696 Plum Brook Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	3mo	$261,990	$208	69
15683 Plum Brook Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	4mo	$265,990	$211	66
15701 Plum Brook Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	1mo	$275,990	$166	66
15690 Plum Brook Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	3mo	$277,990	$167	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,129
• Equity at exit: $38,344

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-105,136
• Equity at exit: $22,235

Cash invested: $72,006 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,349
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,857/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $211,587

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-226	+0% $-315	+5% $-404	+10% $-493
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-388	+0% $-315	+5% $-242	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-185	-0.5pp $-250	base $-315	+0.5pp $-382	+1.0pp $-449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,291
• Closing costs: $7,715
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15648 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,930	$1.08	0d	1	0.10mi
15642 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.10mi
15667 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,930	$1.08	0d	1	0.12mi
15663 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.12mi
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$1,705	$1.04	0d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,990 Active 471 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,990 Active 468 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $230,990 Active 467 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,990 Active 467 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,990 Active 466 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,990 Active 465 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,990 Active 463 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,990 Active 459 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,990 Active 458 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,990 Active 457 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,990 Active 454 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,990 Active 453 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,990 Active 452 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,990 Active 451 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,990 Active 450 DOM
16. 2025-07-07
    status Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2025-06-23
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2025-02-22
    listed $265,990 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,405
• − Property taxes: −$3,857
• − Insurance: −$1,286
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − Depreciation: −$7,481
• Taxable loss: −$8,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,009
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-07 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-22 Listed $265,990 Zillow