2997 Jackson St · Saginaw, MI 48604

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1885 0.30 ac lot Est $109k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom home in Carrolton TWP. Home features two main floor bedrooms plus a spacious upstairs ideal for a third bedroom or bonus space. Generous front room spreading warmth and character. Functional kitchen and dining space offering optimal cabinet and counter top space. Large . 46 acre lot with fenced in yard and fire pit. Brand new roof, B-dry system in basement, and successful weep tile tested. Don't miss out on this rare half acre lot within the city limits-- ideal balance between space and convenience. Don't miss this blend of charm, space, value, and convenience in one of Saginaw's historic neighborhoods.

Key facts

• B-dry system
• Fire pit
• Upstairs bonus space

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR BEDROOMS
• UPSTAIRS BONUS SPACE
• FENCED IN YARD
• FIRE PIT
• NEW ROOF
• B-DRY SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Carrollton Public Schools (suburban): math 9% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #485 of 540 in MI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.50%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,864
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2981 Harrison St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-11%)	6mo	$65,000	$54	69
2984 Jackson St	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,508 (+12%)	11mo	$82,000	$54	63
704 Stoker Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,444 (+7%)	9mo	$54,900	$38	62
2942 Harrison St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+14%)	10mo	$155,000	$101	59
3356 Winter St	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,263 (-6%)	5mo	$120,000	$95	58
723 Pioneer Trl	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,194 (-11%)	2mo	$109,000	$91	54
275 W Lynn St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,498 (+12%)	4mo	$150,000	$100	54
3385 Church St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,234 (-8%)	5mo	$100,000	$81	53
3035 Schaeffer St	0.38mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,186 (-12%)	6mo	$78,500	$66	51
309 Ellsworth St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+10%)	9mo	$113,000	$76	46
3255 Elm St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	12mo	$90,000	$78	45
1112 Asbury Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$185,000	$128	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-785
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $23,155
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48604

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $244/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $362	-5% $328	+0% $294	+5% $123	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $244	+0% $294	+5% $343	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $324	base $294	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-08-28
   soldstatus $119,900
2. 2025-06-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom home in Carrolton TWP. Home features two main floor bedrooms plus a spacious upstairs ideal for a third bedroom or bonus space. Generous front room spreading warmth and character. Functional kitchen and dining space offering optimal cabinet and counter top space. Large . 46 acre lot with fenced in yard and fire pit. Brand new roof, B-dry system in basement, and successful weep tile tested. Don't miss out on this rare half acre lot within the city limits-- ideal balance between space and convenience. Don't miss this blend of charm, space, value, and convenience in one of Saginaw's historic neighborhoods.

3. 2025-06-26
   status Pending 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom home in Carrolton TWP. Home features two main floor bedrooms plus a spacious upstairs ideal for a third bedroom or bonus space. Generous front room spreading warmth and character. Functional kitchen and dining space offering optimal cabinet and counter top space. Large . 46 acre lot with fenced in yard and fire pit. Brand new roof, B-dry system in basement, and successful weep tile tested. Don't miss out on this rare half acre lot within the city limits-- ideal balance between space and convenience. Don't miss this blend of charm, space, value, and convenience in one of Saginaw's historic neighborhoods.

4. 2025-06-25
   price $119,900
5. 2025-06-25
   listed $119,090 Active
6. 2025-06-24
   listed $119,900 Active 645-char remark

   Show marketing remark (645 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom home in Carrolton TWP. Home features two main floor bedrooms plus a spacious upstairs ideal for a third bedroom or bonus space. Generous front room spreading warmth and character. Functional kitchen and dining space offering optimal cabinet and counter top space. Large . 46 acre lot with fenced in yard and fire pit. Brand new roof, B-dry system in basement, and successful weep tile tested. Don't miss out on this rare half acre lot within the city limits-- ideal balance between space and convenience. Don't miss this blend of charm, space, value, and convenience in one of Saginaw's historic neighborhoods.

7. 2004-09-03
   historical
8. 2004-09-03
   historical
9. 2004-05-21
   listed $79,900
10. 2004-05-21
    listed $79,900
11. 2000-04-13
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $244 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$801/yr (+$67/mo · 329.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$244
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,206
• − Management: −$1,206
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $3,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2608070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,147
• Composite: 14.74/100
• National rank: #9395
• State rank: #485 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 54,884
• Population (ZIP): 11,284

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.55%
• Current HPI: 210.5278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+114.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2025-06-26 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-06-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-25 Listed $119,090 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-24 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-09-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-09-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-05-21 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-05-21 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2000-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $244 · -81.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.