1425 Eggert Rd · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1938 0.25 ac lot Est $288k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you're looking for your next project for investment or personal use, this could be it. This home features 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a formal dining room and a full basement. Located near Main St and retail and restaurants, you need to check this out. Easy to show!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1938

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,426 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.06%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,236
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1425 Eggert Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,196 (0%)	0mo	$165,000	$138	100
130 Stevenson Blvd	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+3%)	1mo	$347,000	$282	74
29 Danebrock Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+3%)	1mo	$298,000	$241	73
233 Crosby Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-7%)	0mo	$360,000	$324	69
64 Gresham Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,245 (+4%)	5mo	$260,000	$209	68
414 Longmeadow Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,111 (-7%)	3mo	$270,000	$243	67
206 Lamont Dr	0.52mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (-1%)	4mo	$300,000	$253	65
396 Maynard Dr	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,238 (+4%)	4mo	$226,500	$183	60
343 Ivyhurst Rd N	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,067 (-11%)	4mo	$224,900	$211	56
329 Springville Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+9%)	0mo	$322,040	$247	52
49 Canterbury Ct	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,354 (+13%)	5mo	$312,000	$230	44
1789 Eggert Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,368 (+14%)	4mo	$235,000	$172	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-999
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $67,641
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,192/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,729

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
780 Millersport Hwy Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	43d	1	0.58mi
63 Garnet Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	43d	1	0.72mi
212 Dellwood Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	4.0	1209	$3,400	$2.81	1d	2	0.77mi
348 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,200	$1.54	1d	1	0.87mi
79 Rosemont Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1071	$2,200	$2.05	43d	1	1.13mi
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	43d	1	1.33mi
499 Burroughs Dr Unit 5 Amherst, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	1d	1	1.35mi
4035-4055 Harlem Rd Unit 4081B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	815	$1,649	$2.02	1d	1	1.36mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	1d	1	1.44mi
507 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	1.44mi
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	19d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,192 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,192 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$5,192
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602920
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,551
• Composite: 53.21/100
• National rank: #1502
• State rank: #209 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eggertsville, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $164,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,192 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.