148 Swan Lake Dr · Keystone Heights, FL 32666

$99,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 276 Days on market

Built 1970 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy lakefront living on peaceful Lake Serena (approximately 60 acres). Set on a beautiful ~0.25-acre lot shaded by majestic oaks and blooming azaleas, this well-kept 1970 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a practical, easy-living layout. Step onto the back deck for sweeping water views—perfect for morning coffee or sunset unwinding. Spend time in the gazebo enjoying the vistas, or lay back in the hammock and take a cat nap. Fenced backyard includes a storage shed for your gear and garden tools, while the front yard features a powered 225-sq-ft block building—great for a workshop, studio, or extra storage. With direct lake access for paddling, fishing, and relaxing, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle and a hard-to-find price point on the water. Bring your ideas to personalize, or enjoy as is—either way, you're buying into true lake life.

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• Water views
• Storage shed

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• BACK DECK
• WATER VIEWS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• POWERED BLOCK BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential Mobile Home; Lot size approximately 0.25 acre (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Zoning: R-1; Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access / driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single wide; One story; Facing west; On waterfront (lake) with approximately 96 feet of frontage
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Storage; Gazebo; Shed(s); Workshop; Lake frontage (water access and lake view)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other; Crawlspace foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam (town): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 73 in FL (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $99k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.00%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $11,351
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $45,310
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32666

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 271 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 265 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,000 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 261 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 260 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 259 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 258 DOM
14. 2026-01-20
    price $99,000

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Enjoy lakefront living on peaceful Lake Serena (approximately 60 acres). Set on a beautiful ~0.25-acre lot shaded by majestic oaks and blooming azaleas, this well-kept 1970 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a practical, easy-living layout. Step onto the back deck for sweeping water views—perfect for morning coffee or sunset unwinding. Spend time in the gazebo enjoying the vistas, or lay back in the hammock and take a cat nap. Fenced backyard includes a storage shed for your gear and garden tools, while the front yard features a powered 225-sq-ft block building—great for a workshop, studio, or extra storage. With direct lake access for paddling, fishing, and relaxing, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle and a hard-to-find price point on the water. Bring your ideas to personalize, or enjoy as is—either way, you're buying into true lake life.

15. 2026-01-20
    price $99,000 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Enjoy lakefront living on peaceful Lake Serena (approximately 60 acres). Set on a beautiful ~0.25-acre lot shaded by majestic oaks and blooming azaleas, this well-kept 1970 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a practical, easy-living layout. Step onto the back deck for sweeping water views—perfect for morning coffee or sunset unwinding. Spend time in the gazebo enjoying the vistas, or lay back in the hammock and take a cat nap. Fenced backyard includes a storage shed for your gear and garden tools, while the front yard features a powered 225-sq-ft block building—great for a workshop, studio, or extra storage. With direct lake access for paddling, fishing, and relaxing, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle and a hard-to-find price point on the water. Bring your ideas to personalize, or enjoy as is—either way, you're buying into true lake life.

16. 2025-10-24
    price $115,000

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Enjoy lakefront living on peaceful Lake Serena (approximately 60 acres). Set on a beautiful ~0.25-acre lot shaded by majestic oaks and blooming azaleas, this well-kept 1970 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a practical, easy-living layout. Step onto the back deck for sweeping water views—perfect for morning coffee or sunset unwinding. Spend time in the gazebo enjoying the vistas, or lay back in the hammock and take a cat nap. Fenced backyard includes a storage shed for your gear and garden tools, while the front yard features a powered 225-sq-ft block building—great for a workshop, studio, or extra storage. With direct lake access for paddling, fishing, and relaxing, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle and a hard-to-find price point on the water. Bring your ideas to personalize, or enjoy as is—either way, you're buying into true lake life.

17. 2025-10-24
    price $115,000 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Enjoy lakefront living on peaceful Lake Serena (approximately 60 acres). Set on a beautiful ~0.25-acre lot shaded by majestic oaks and blooming azaleas, this well-kept 1970 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a practical, easy-living layout. Step onto the back deck for sweeping water views—perfect for morning coffee or sunset unwinding. Spend time in the gazebo enjoying the vistas, or lay back in the hammock and take a cat nap. Fenced backyard includes a storage shed for your gear and garden tools, while the front yard features a powered 225-sq-ft block building—great for a workshop, studio, or extra storage. With direct lake access for paddling, fishing, and relaxing, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle and a hard-to-find price point on the water. Bring your ideas to personalize, or enjoy as is—either way, you're buying into true lake life.

18. 2025-09-15
    listed $125,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Enjoy lakefront living on peaceful Lake Serena (approximately 60 acres). Set on a beautiful ~0.25-acre lot shaded by majestic oaks and blooming azaleas, this well-kept 1970 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a practical, easy-living layout. Step onto the back deck for sweeping water views—perfect for morning coffee or sunset unwinding. Spend time in the gazebo enjoying the vistas, or lay back in the hammock and take a cat nap. Fenced backyard includes a storage shed for your gear and garden tools, while the front yard features a powered 225-sq-ft block building—great for a workshop, studio, or extra storage. With direct lake access for paddling, fishing, and relaxing, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle and a hard-to-find price point on the water. Bring your ideas to personalize, or enjoy as is—either way, you're buying into true lake life.

19. 2025-09-15
    listed $125,000 Active 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Enjoy lakefront living on peaceful Lake Serena (approximately 60 acres). Set on a beautiful ~0.25-acre lot shaded by majestic oaks and blooming azaleas, this well-kept 1970 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with a practical, easy-living layout. Step onto the back deck for sweeping water views—perfect for morning coffee or sunset unwinding. Spend time in the gazebo enjoying the vistas, or lay back in the hammock and take a cat nap. Fenced backyard includes a storage shed for your gear and garden tools, while the front yard features a powered 225-sq-ft block building—great for a workshop, studio, or extra storage. With direct lake access for paddling, fishing, and relaxing, this home delivers a laid-back lifestyle and a hard-to-find price point on the water. Bring your ideas to personalize, or enjoy as is—either way, you're buying into true lake life.

20. 2012-01-01
    historical
21. 2011-12-27
    soldstatus $48,000
22. 2011-09-09
    historical
23. 2011-01-06
    listed $49,900
24. 2011-01-06
    listed $49,900
25. 1984-07-01
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$922
• After-tax cash flow: $4,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam
• NCES district ID: 1201620
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,350
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6361
• State rank: #66 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,299 people
• By 2030: 61,255 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 52,930 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 45,051 · -31.0%
• By 2075: 28,720 · -56.0%
• By 2100: 15,852 · -75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+24.5 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.77%
• Current HPI: 314.0055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+421.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $99,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $115,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $125,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-06 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-06 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $619 · -44.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.