180 Longwood Xing · Lawrence, NY 11559

$3,350,000

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 520 Days on market

Built 1923 0.87 ac lot $1079/sqft · 62% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this timeless colonial-style home, featuring five bedrooms and four and a half baths. The elegant design include an expansive Eat in kitchen a formal living room, a dining room, and a cozy den with views of the spacious backyard. An added feature is a full 3rd floor office ,Den and full bath. Nestled in the back of Lawrence, this home sits on close to an acre of beautifully landscaped property, complete with a stunning pool and low taxes! Close to all house of worship! make it your own. All offers being reviewed. Great opportunity

Key facts

• Colonial style home
• Cozy den
• Expansive kitchen

Tags

• COLONIAL STYLE HOME
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• COZY DEN
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $3.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.93M (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.28M (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.28M (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.8% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#981 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence Middle School At Broadway Campus (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 405 students, 79% FRL); Lawrence Senior High School (math 87% / reading 30%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 770 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $358k of equity ($23k loan paydown + $335k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$576k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 520 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.95M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $540k; list at $3.35M implies a 520% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,280,477 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 520 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,072,579
• List price: $3,350,000
• Delta: 61.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Ocean Ave	0.50mi	5/3.0	3,013 (-3%)	4mo	$1,999,999	$664	60
26 Bayberry Rd	0.26mi	5/4.0	2,800 (-10%)	11mo	$2,400,000	$857	59
520 Chauncey Ln	0.39mi	5/2.5	3,240 (+4%)	10mo	$1,800,000	$556	56
7 Stuyvesant Pl	0.53mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,888 (-7%)	5mo	$2,400,000	$831	49
16 Hawthorne Ln	0.61mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,032 (-2%)	13mo	$1,999,000	$659	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $1,671,067
• Equity at exit: $3,017,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $5,037,943
• Equity at exit: $6,508,313

Cash invested: $938,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11559

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,805 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$17,568
• Tax from tax record: −$1,440 /mo · $17,281/yr
• Insurance: −$1,396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,789
• Net cashflow: $-2,388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $25,827

Max offer price $2,928,164

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-492	-5% $-1,440	+0% $-2,388	+5% $-3,336	+10% $-4,284
Rent	-10% $-4,189	-5% $-3,289	+0% $-2,388	+5% $-1,487	+10% $-586
Rate	-1.0pp $-701	-0.5pp $-1,536	base $-2,388	+0.5pp $-3,256	+1.0pp $-4,139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $837,500
• Closing costs: $100,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Harborview W Lawrence, NY	4.0	4.5	3877	$35,000	$9.03	45d	1	0.74mi
128 Hards Ln Lawrence, NY	4.0	2.5	2685	$8,000	$2.98	45d	1	1.01mi
803 Barberry Ln Woodmere, NY	6.0	3.5	4400	$8,600	$1.95	0d	1	1.12mi
1701 Bay Blvd Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	3.0	2730	$25,000	$9.16	26d	1	1.37mi
1495 Bay Blvd Atlantic Beach, NY	6.0	4.5	3744	$20,000	$5.34	0d	1	1.44mi
486 Oxford Rd Cedarhurst, NY	6.0	3.5	3465	$8,000	$2.31	4d	1	1.44mi
77 Tioga Ave Atlantic Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	2800	$5,800	$2.07	26d	1	1.46mi
215 Scott Dr Atlantic Beach, NY	5.0	3.0	2862	$22,500	$7.86	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $3,350,000 Active 520 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,350,000 Active 517 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,350,000 Active 516 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 623-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,350,000 Active 515 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,350,000 Active 514 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,350,000 Active 512 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,350,000 Active 511 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,350,000 Active 508 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $3,350,000 Active 507 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,350,000 Active 506 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,350,000 Active 503 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,350,000 Active 502 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,350,000 Active 501 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,350,000 Active 500 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,350,000 Active 499 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    price $3,350,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Step into this timeless colonial-style home, featuring five bedrooms and four and a half baths. The elegant design include an expansive Eat in kitchen a formal living room, a dining room, and a cozy den with views of the spacious backyard. An added feature is a full 3rd floor office ,Den and full bath. Nestled in the back of Lawrence, this home sits on close to an acre of beautifully landscaped property, complete with a stunning pool and low taxes! Close to all house of worship! make it your own. All offers being reviewed. Great opportunity

18. 2025-06-20
    price $3,899,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Step into this timeless colonial-style home, featuring five bedrooms and four and a half baths. The elegant design include an expansive Eat in kitchen a formal living room, a dining room, and a cozy den with views of the spacious backyard. An added feature is a full 3rd floor office ,Den and full bath. Nestled in the back of Lawrence, this home sits on close to an acre of beautifully landscaped property, complete with a stunning pool and low taxes! Close to all house of worship! make it your own. All offers being reviewed. Great opportunity

19. 2025-01-17
    listed $4,599,000 Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Step into this timeless colonial-style home, featuring five bedrooms and four and a half baths. The elegant design include an expansive Eat in kitchen a formal living room, a dining room, and a cozy den with views of the spacious backyard. An added feature is a full 3rd floor office ,Den and full bath. Nestled in the back of Lawrence, this home sits on close to an acre of beautifully landscaped property, complete with a stunning pool and low taxes! Close to all house of worship! make it your own. All offers being reviewed. Great opportunity

20. 1996-02-16
    soldstatus $540,000
21. 1974-08-01
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $17,281 · $1,440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $36,948 · $3,079/mo
• Expected delta: +$19,667/yr (+$1,639/mo · 113.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $273,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$187,652
• − Property taxes: −$17,281
• − Insurance: −$16,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,893
• − Management: −$21,893
• − Depreciation: −$97,455
• Taxable loss: −$89,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21,424
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616830
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $91,008
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3307
• State rank: #399 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lawrence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #981
• US rank: #19168

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrence, NY
• City population: 9,130
• Population (ZIP): 9,130

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Slovak 3% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.24%
• Current HPI: 436.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3622.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $3,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $3,899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Listed $4,599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $540,000 Public Records
• 1974-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $17,281 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.