407 Granville St · Oxford, NC 27565

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1928 6,969 sqft lot Est $142k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent investment opportunity or starter home! Hard to beat this price point! Don't miss it!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1928

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; 6 open parking spaces; Additional parking; Off-street and on-street parking (no garage, unassigned)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Phone connected
• Home design: House; One story; Entry level: 1; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Shingle roof; Block permanent foundation; Built area approximately 815
• Exterior features: Front porch; Grassed yard; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (2 on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Linoleum; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace (natural gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Shower only
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.7% in Oxford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#610 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Granville County Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #137 of 178 in NC (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granville Central High (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 638 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 50% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Granville County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 428 units permitted in Granville County in 2024 (120 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.26%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,298
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 1st St	0.15mi	3/1.0	884 (+5%)	7mo	$149,000	$169	79
312 W Front St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	894 (+6%)	12mo	$40,000	$45	70
413 Sycamore St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	812 (-4%)	16mo	$93,000	$115	66
407 Mimosa St	0.17mi	3/1.0	960 (+14%)	19mo	$222,500	$232	53
229 Maple Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	754 (-10%)	11mo	$70,000	$93	51
300 Coleman St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	888 (+6%)	6mo	$150,000	$169	51
124 Kearney Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	922 (+10%)	9mo	$181,000	$196	41
128 Warren Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+14%)	10mo	$160,000	$167	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $13,478
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $45,732
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27565

• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $624

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $438	+0% $415	+5% $393	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $325	-5% $370	+0% $415	+5% $461	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $436	base $415	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 Wilmington Ave Unit 230 Oxford, NC	2.0	1.5	992	$995	$1.00	25d	1	0.48mi
218 College St Unit A Oxford, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	25d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $80,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $80,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $80,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-05-01
   listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$171/yr (+$14/mo · 35.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$936
• After-tax cash flow: $4,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granville County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701800
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,713
• Composite: 27.81/100
• National rank: #6887
• State rank: #137 of 178 in NC

Livability — Oxford

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #610
• US rank: #22195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oxford, NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,658

Population outlook (Granville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,753 people
• By 2030: 61,381 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 61,861 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 61,261 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 59,948 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 55,273 · -9.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Granville

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+6.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.56%
• Current HPI: 209.2788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $80,000 TMLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · +75.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.