Bayberry III Plan · Denton, TX 76226

$589,990

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,261 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Classic Series Bayberry III floor plan is a two-story home with five bedrooms and three and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, an upstairs game room, and a second private bedroom suite that has the option to change to a shared Jack and Jill. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Formal dining
• Large family room

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FORMAL DINING
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $589,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $624,802.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $590k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $404k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (40.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $353k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1563 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($519k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $353,487 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.46%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $624,802
• List price: $589,990
• Delta: -5.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3200 Emerald Trace Dr	0.06mi	5/4.0	3,479 (+7%)	5mo	$694,990	$200	80
2913 Classical Dr	0.40mi	5/3.5	3,347 (+3%)	6mo	$524,990	$157	72
3204 Emerald Trace Dr	0.07mi	5/4.0	3,696 (+13%)	2mo	$629,990	$170	71
3300 Emerald Trace Dr	0.11mi	5/4.0	2,849 (-13%)	3mo	$624,990	$219	69
5204 Middlestone Ln	0.48mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,192 (-2%)	3mo	$557,990	$175	67
2808 Tamarack Ln	0.49mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,137 (-4%)	5mo	$578,990	$185	62
2608 Tamarack Ln	0.58mi	5/4.0	3,130 (-4%)	4mo	$559,990	$179	61
2616 Tamarack Ln	0.56mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,192 (-2%)	6mo	$584,990	$183	60
3113 Tamarack Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,003 (-8%)	2mo	$440,000	$147	60
2620 Tamarack Ln	0.56mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,115 (-4%)	3mo	$569,990	$183	59
5108 Edge Way	0.59mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,192 (-2%)	4mo	$573,990	$180	58
5104 Shady Grove Ln	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,915 (-11%)	7mo	$539,990	$185	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-203,216
• Equity at exit: $93,160

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-321,293
• Equity at exit: $54,021

Cash invested: $174,945 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.8 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $589,990 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 403 d
• This list price: 49% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1563
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,277
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$781 /mo · $9,372/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $-1,525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,466

Max offer price $404,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,094	-5% $-1,309	+0% $-1,525	+5% $-1,741	+10% $-1,957
Rent	-10% $-1,805	-5% $-1,665	+0% $-1,525	+5% $-1,386	+10% $-1,246
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,211	-0.5pp $-1,366	base $-1,525	+0.5pp $-1,687	+1.0pp $-1,852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,201
• Closing costs: $18,744
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Emerald Trace Dr Argyle, TX	6.0	5.0	4410	$3,900	$0.88	6d	1	0.12mi
2909 Parkwood Cir Argyle, TX	5.0	3.5	3429	$3,600	$1.05	24d	1	0.12mi
4505 Merlot Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2353	$2,350	$1.00	139d	1	0.19mi
3200 Stonecrop Trl Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2595	$2,750	$1.06	82d	1	0.20mi
4512 Claret Ct Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,600	$1.09	50d	1	0.44mi
2721 Donella Dr Denton, TX	5.0	3.0	2497	$3,500	$1.40	24d	1	0.99mi
1120 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$2,370	$0.88	108d	1	1.17mi
3100 Spenrock Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,650	$1.08	62d	1	1.25mi
3100 Spenrock Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,550	$1.04	18d	1	1.25mi
1709 Sparrow St Denton, TX	5.0	4.0	2922	$3,300	$1.13	82d	1	1.27mi
1513 Woodpecker St Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2733	$3,500	$1.28	82d	1	1.39mi
1501 Woodpecker St Denton, TX	5.0	3.0	2804	$3,000	$1.07	24d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price: $589,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Bayberry III)Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 3017 Creekhollow Ct, Denton, TX 76226

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan model home (Bayberry III plan)Living area of 3,261

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $589,990 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $589,990 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $589,990 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $589,990 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $589,990 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $589,990 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $589,990 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $589,990 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $589,990 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $589,990 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $589,990 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $589,990 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $589,990 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $589,990 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $589,990 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $589,990 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $589,990 Active 139 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $589,990 Active 138 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $589,990 Active 137 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $589,990 Active 136 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $589,990 Active 135 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $589,990 Active 133 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $589,990 Active 132 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $589,990 Active 131 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $589,990 Active 130 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $589,990 Active 129 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $589,990 Active 128 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $589,990 Active 127 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $589,990 Active 126 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $589,990 Active 125 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $589,990 Active 124 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $589,990 Active 123 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $589,990 Active 122 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $589,990 Active 121 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $589,990 Active 120 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $589,990 Active 119 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $589,990 Active 118 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $589,990 Active 117 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $589,990 Active 116 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $589,990 Active 114 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $589,990 Active 113 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $589,990 Active 112 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $589,990 Active 111 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $589,990 Active 108 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $589,990 Active 107 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $589,990 Active 106 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $589,990 Active 105 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $589,990 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $589,990 Active 101 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $589,990 Active 100 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,999
• − Property taxes: −$9,372
• − Insurance: −$3,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,393
• − Management: −$3,393
• − Depreciation: −$18,176
• Taxable loss: −$30,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,209
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $16,305–$48,915 screening

This two-story home in the Bayberry III plan is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Fresh paint and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home's overall appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Freshens up the home and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hilltop El B- TX #409/4,322 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Argyle Middle A- TX #73/1,662 Nat'l #970/14,009 High Argyle H S A TX #36/1,632 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808670
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $108,516
• Composite: 64.16/100
• National rank: #568
• State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 88/100

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price: $589,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Bayberry III)Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 3017 Creekhollow Ct, Denton, TX 76226

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan model home (Bayberry III plan)Living area of 3,261