644 Briar Rd · Wauconda, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 100°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +24.2/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +7.8/10.0
- 1% rule +7.5/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.5/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$215,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Well-maintained 1964 Ranch home - 3BR 1BA home, FULL basement (36x25), 2 car att. garage sits on Corner lot. The home needs updating, not touched in several years. Sliding glass doors off kitchen and living room to concrete patio. Wood floor in the Living Room. Wood floors under carpet. Wood burning fireplace. Near Route 176 & Route 12. EZ on/off. Great location!! The roof was fully torn off and replaced in 2019, offering peace of mind for years to come. Gutters and downspouts are installed by Leafguard with a transferable warranty for the new owner. The home features a furnace installed in 2015 that has been professionally serviced annually, along with a newer garage furnace (2025) t
Key facts
- 0.25 acre lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 1964
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
- Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.8% in Wauconda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 65/100 on livability (#625 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Wauconda CUSD 118 (suburban): math 22% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #267 of 620 in IL (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Robert Crown School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #736 of 2,056 statewide, top 36%, 859 students, 0% FRL); Matthews Middle School (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #405 of 665 statewide, top 61%, 510 students, 0% FRL); Wauconda High School (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #210 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 1,460 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Negotiation context
- Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- Current owner paid $89k; list at $215k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.25% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.69%
- Cash-on-cash
- 8.58%
- DSCR
- 1.38
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $281,196
- Comps found
- 8
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 644 Briar Rd | 0.00mi | 3/1.0 | 1,284 (0%) | 0mo | $225,000 | $175 | 100 |
| 470 Oakwood Rd | 0.33mi | 3/1.0 | 1,300 (+1%) | 5mo | $285,000 | $219 | 79 |
| 672 Minerva Ave | 0.30mi | 3/1.0 | 1,300 (+1%) | 19mo | $245,000 | $188 | 68 |
| 390 Willow Rd | 0.43mi | 3/1.0 | 1,300 (+1%) | 12mo | $279,900 | $215 | 68 |
| 507 Indian Ridge Trl | 0.24mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,300 (+1%) | 14mo | $375,000 | $288 | 66 |
| 511 Indian Ridge Trl | 0.22mi | 3/2.0 | 1,458 (+14%) | 13mo | $351,000 | $241 | 52 |
| 415 Oakwood Rd | 0.40mi | 4/1.5 (+1) | 1,150 (-10%) | 22mo | $250,000 | $217 | 39 |
| 220 Lewis Ave | 0.67mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,156 (-10%) | 13mo | $275,000 | $238 | 36 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -3.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.88×
- Total profit
- $-7,273
- Equity at exit
- $32,057
- IRR
- 6.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.49×
- Total profit
- $29,616
- Equity at exit
- $18,589
Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 60084
- Active inventory
- 54
- Price-to-rent
- 6.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,678 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,127
- Tax from tax record
- −$469 /mo · $5,623/yr
- Insurance
- −$90
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$562
- Net cashflow
- $430
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $53,750
- Closing costs
- $6,450
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 6 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 235 Regency Ct Unit c Wauconda, IL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1785 | $2,745 | $1.54 | 43d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 225 Regency Ct Unit C Wauconda, IL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1786 | $2,900 | $1.62 | 3d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 225 Regency Ct Wauconda, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1786 | $2,900 | $1.62 | 12d | 1 | 0.53mi |
| 139 North Ave Wauconda, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1050 | $2,150 | $2.05 | 43d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 608 Sheridan Dr Wauconda, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1008 | $2,355 | $2.34 | 7d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 913 Madison Ave Wauconda, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $2,800 | $2.33 | 18d | 1 | 1.36mi |
Listing history 3 events
-
2026-04-28status Pending
-
2026-04-09historical
-
1988-06-01soldstatus $88,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $5,623 · $469/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,623 · $469/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,141
- − Mortgage interest
- −$12,043
- − Property taxes
- −$5,623
- − Insurance
- −$1,075
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,571
- − Management
- −$2,571
- − Depreciation
- −$6,255
- Taxable income
- $2,002
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$480
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,683/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Wauconda CUSD 118
- NCES district ID
- 1741190
- Math proficiency
- 22% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 29% ▼ -14.00%
- Median HH income
- $72,358
- Composite
- 24.59/100
- National rank
- #7635
- State rank
- #267 of 620 in IL
Livability — Wauconda
- Score
- 65/100
- State rank
- #625
- US rank
- #12780
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Wauconda, IL
- Population (ZIP)
- 17,267
Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 700,217 people
- By 2030
- 693,290 · -1.0%
- By 2040
- 673,588 · -3.8%
- By 2050
- 643,556 · -8.1%
- By 2075
- 562,792 · -19.6%
- By 2100
- 457,715 · -34.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (73%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 16%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 14% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Chinese 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Lake
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -120.30%
- Current HPI
- 204.0309
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
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| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
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| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
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| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
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Price history
3 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-28 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 1988-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $88,900 Public Records
Property tax history
+2.0%/yrLatest (2024): $5,623 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…