2909 Meadowlane St · Victoria, TX 77901

$39,300

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1954 9,273 sqft lot $40/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at 2909 Meadowlane, this 2 bedroom, 1 bath home sits on a 0.21 acre lot and offers a solid layout ready for updates. The property is well suited for investors or buyers looking to renovate. Conveniently positioned near Victoria College, Texas A & M University–Victoria, and local hospitals. With its lot size and central positioning, this is a solid addition to a rental portfolio or a project ready to be finished out.

Key facts

• Central positioning
• Near local hospitals
• 9,273 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEAR VICTORIA COLLEGE
• NEAR LOCAL HOSPITALS
• CENTRAL POSITIONING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle/composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered porch/patio; Chain link fencing; City lot; Less than quarter acre lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: One room listed as Other
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.1% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $272 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,121 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.46%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,652
• List price: $39,300
• Delta: -56.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3401 Meadowlane St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (-1%)	6mo	$169,000	$173	75
2812 Curlew St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+7%)	4mo	$155,000	$147	68
3605 E Rio Grande St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (-4%)	5mo	$53,000	$56	63
2408 E Btazos	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (-1%)	2mo	$55,000	$56	61
2808 Meadowlark St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	850 (-14%)	2mo	$52,000	$61	59
3204 Oaklawn St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,129 (+14%)	2mo	$60,000	$53	59
3309 Avondale St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,124 (+14%)	1mo	$185,000	$165	55
2407 E Brazos	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	876 (-11%)	2mo	$55,000	$63	45
3105 Gayle St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	855 (-14%)	4mo	$165,000	$193	32
2306 E Trinity	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,096 (+11%)	15mo	$75,000	$68	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $27,481
• Equity at exit: $5,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $59,245
• Equity at exit: $3,398

Cash invested: $11,004 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$206
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $831/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $369

Max offer price $39,300

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,825
• Closing costs: $1,179
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2402 N Ben Wilson St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,580	$1.60	44d	20	0.39mi
2107 N Ben Jordan St Victoria, TX	1.0	1.0	616	$745	$1.21	44d	1	0.80mi
1810 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,112	$1.23	44d	8	0.87mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 220 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$1,013	$1.04	44d	1	0.96mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 125 Victoria, TX	1.0	1.0	674	$863	$1.28	44d	1	0.96mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 209 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$963	$0.99	44d	1	0.96mi
102 Palmwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,045	$0.95	44d	1	0.96mi
306 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,370	$1.78	44d	4	0.98mi
1603 E Brazos St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$975	$1.22	44d	6	0.99mi
203 Palmwood Dr Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,350	$1.22	44d	1	1.05mi
1303 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	525	$675	$1.29	44d	1	1.10mi
1002 Pine St Victoria, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$575	$0.88	44d	1	1.26mi
903 Linwood Dr Apt 406 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	866	$975	$1.13	44d	1	1.32mi
903 Linwood Dr Victoria, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$899	$1.28	44d	1	1.33mi
903 Linwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	44d	1	1.33mi
2303 N Louis St Unit 2307 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$850	$1.04	44d	1	1.45mi
2303 N Louis St Unit 2303 Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	44d	1	1.45mi
301 Westwood St Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	987	$1,145	$1.16	44d	1	1.48mi
301 Westwood St Apt D Victoria, TX	2.0	1.5	987	$1,145	$1.16	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $39,300 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $39,300 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,300 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,300 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $39,400 437-char remark
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $39,885 Active 437-char remark
16. 2011-05-09
    historical
17. 2010-11-09
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,201
• − Property taxes: −$831
• − Insurance: −$196
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
• − Management: −$1,062
• − Depreciation: −$1,143
• Taxable income: $6,775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,626
• After-tax cash flow: $5,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-06-01 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $39,300 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $39,400 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $39,885 CTXMLS
• 2011-05-09 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2010-11-09 Listed $35,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $831 · -10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.