138 Cabbage Palm Ln · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$175,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,554 sqft · Manufactured · 370 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This brand-new home in sunny Naples, Florida, offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. With 2 spacious bedrooms, 2 well-appointed bathrooms, and an additional den/office space, it's designed to meet the needs of modern living. The master bedroom is thoughtfully situated at the rear of the home, offering privacy and tranquility, and features a stunning master bath complete with a luxurious freestanding soaker tub, ideal for relaxing after a long day. The heart of the home is the gorgeous kitchen, featuring a large island that's perfect for cooking, entertaining, or casual dining. Located in the amenity-rich community of Marco Shores, this home places you just minutes away

Key facts

• Master bath
• Island in kitchen
• Den office

Tags

• DEN OFFICE
• ISLAND IN KITCHEN
• MASTER BATH
• FREE STANDING SOAKER TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Listing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $175,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property (spec new construction); Plan name: 138 Cabbage Palm Lane; Address: 138 Cabbage Palm Ln, Naples FL 34114

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1554 (listed under property information)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $176k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $176k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Elementary School (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 584 students, 73% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,235/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.90%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $92,694
• Equity at exit: $38,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $235,958
• Equity at exit: $37,025

Cash invested: $49,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,235 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$922
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$220 /mo · $2,638/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$889
• Net cashflow: $1,704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,079

Max offer price $175,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,825	-5% $1,764	+0% $1,704	+5% $1,643	+10% $1,582
Rent	-10% $1,369	-5% $1,536	+0% $1,704	+5% $1,871	+10% $2,038
Rate	-1.0pp $1,792	-0.5pp $1,748	base $1,704	+0.5pp $1,658	+1.0pp $1,612

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,975
• Closing costs: $5,277
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2057 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2080	$7,800	$3.75	25d	1	0.32mi
1276 Enbrook Loop Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1503	$5,000	$3.33	25d	1	0.38mi
1212 Enbrook Loop Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1496	$2,850	$1.91	25d	1	0.39mi
1157 Enbrook Loop Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1503	$3,000	$2.00	25d	1	0.44mi
1171 Tranquil Brook Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1503	$4,500	$2.99	15d	1	0.45mi
1937 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2214	$3,830	$1.73	22d	1	0.46mi
2235 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,795	$1.86	25d	1	0.48mi
842 Enbrook Loop Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1503	$2,800	$1.86	25d	1	0.48mi
274 Riverwood Rd Unit 1546056P Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1496	$4,451	$2.98	15d	1	0.49mi
847 Enbrook Loop Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1503	$2,950	$1.96	25d	1	0.50mi
2244 Yellowfin Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,300	$1.99	15d	1	0.51mi
1078 Rolling Brook Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1503	$2,750	$1.83	22d	1	0.52mi
1747 Beverly Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,300	$2.13	25d	1	0.59mi
2000 Rookery Bay Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,772	$1.91	25d	9	0.64mi
6767 Pennyroyal Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2185	$10,500	$4.81	25d	1	0.77mi
158 Rookery Rd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,450	$1.68	25d	1	0.77mi
9243 Tesoro Ln Unit 2 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$6,500	$3.10	15d	1	0.80mi
9255 Museo #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$9,000	$4.29	25d	1	0.81mi
9242 Tesoro Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$3,000	$1.34	25d	1	0.83mi
9267 Museo Cir Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2100	$5,200	$2.48	25d	1	0.86mi
9259 Museo Cir #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,150	$1.98	25d	1	0.91mi
3955 Deer Crossing Ct #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$7,500	$4.14	25d	1	0.99mi
3975 Deer Crossing Ct #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2101	$7,500	$3.57	25d	1	0.99mi
3985 Deer Crossing Ct #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1981	$5,795	$2.93	25d	1	1.00mi
9571 Mussorie Ct Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2117	$12,500	$5.90	25d	1	1.03mi
3940 Deer Crossing Ct Unit 4-203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2166	$7,500	$3.46	25d	1	1.04mi
14214 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,700	$1.73	22d	1	1.04mi
14214 Manchester Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,800	$1.79	25d	1	1.04mi
3930 Deer Crossing Ct #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1950	$2,530	$1.30	15d	1	1.05mi
6680 Beach Resort Dr Unit 1214 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1351	$4,500	$3.33	15d	1	1.06mi
6750 Beach Resort Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1351	$3,200	$2.37	15d	2	1.09mi
6750 Beach Resort Dr #7 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1351	$3,900	$2.89	25d	1	1.09mi
4685 Hawks Nest Way #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$6,500	$4.51	15d	1	1.09mi
4529 Cardinal Cove Ln #7 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1539	$6,500	$4.22	25d	1	1.10mi
4680 Hawks Nest Way Unit D-103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,000	$2.12	15d	1	1.15mi
6650 Beach Resort Dr Unit 908 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1351	$4,600	$3.40	15d	1	1.19mi
4650 Hawks Nest Way Unit M202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1840	$9,600	$5.22	15d	1	1.20mi
14678 Fern Lake Ct Unit 1049694P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2142	$6,065	$2.83	15d	1	1.27mi
14796 Canton Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$7,000	$4.17	25d	1	1.28mi
14103 Nautica Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,650	$1.97	25d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,900 Active 370 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,900 Active 369 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,900 Active 368 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,900 Active 367 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,900 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,900 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,900 Active 360 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,900 Active 359 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,900 Active 354 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,900 Active 353 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,900 Active 352 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,900 Active 351 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥108°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,853
• − Property taxes: −$2,638
• − Insurance: −$5,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,066
• − Management: −$4,066
• − Depreciation: −$5,117
• Taxable income: $19,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,580
• After-tax cash flow: $15,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B