12608 Lazy Cove Dr · Willis, TX 77318

$145,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1995 5,937 sqft lot Est $140k · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Specious 3 bedroom 2 bath Mobile Home light and bright some updates and painting done to get the home ready for sale. This home is SETTING ON LARGE LOT WITH OUTSIDE 9 x 12 STORAGE BUILDING. .. . subdivision has entry slip to Lake Conroe. Nice front porch and handicap ramp for entry.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Covered patio
• Gutted kitchen

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• GUTTED KITCHEN
• TILE SHOWER
• FIRE PIT
• BBQ GRILL
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is cleared and in a subdivision with side yard; road surface is asphalt
• HOA & community: Paradise Cove Community Improvement Association; Annual association fee of $100; Community boat ramp

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Full ownership; Block foundation
• Construction: Built in 1995; Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Paved driveway; Shed storage; Storage area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Quartz countertops
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms; Primary and other bedrooms located on the first floor; Bedroom sizes include: 9'6" x 11', 10'2" x 12'9", 13' x 12'8"
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom approx. 4'11" x 14'11"; Other bathroom approx. 4'7" x 8'11"
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Quartz counters; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; No fireplaces; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer listed among appliances; Utility room on the first floor (approx. 5'4" x 4'11")

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,711 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.02%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,840
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15185 Ridgepoint Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	4mo	$120,000	$99	92
11614 Vistawood St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$139,900	$115	88
9871 Arbor Oak	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$70,000	$58	84
8786 Scarlet Oak	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$62,900	$52	81
13236 Enchanted Vis	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$144	73
12751 Paradise View Ct W	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	8mo	$140,000	$125	71
8888 Water Oak St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	12mo	$195,000	$174	65
13253 Enchanted Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	2mo	$72,000	$60	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,752
• Equity at exit: $21,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $25,208
• Equity at exit: $12,615

Cash invested: $40,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $381/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $145,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,475
• Closing costs: $4,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	0.18mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.18mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.27mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.29mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	44d	1	0.30mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	44d	1	0.31mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	0.64mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	0.69mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $145,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $145,900 Active
15. 2025-10-24
    historical $2,500
16. 2025-07-08
    listed $2,500
17. 2025-06-26
    historical $2,500
18. 2024-10-29
    listed $2,500
19. 2024-08-22
    historical $2,500
20. 2024-01-06
    price $2,500
21. 2023-11-07
    price $2,800
22. 2023-11-06
    listed $3,000
23. 2023-10-12
    historical
24. 2017-12-14
    soldstatus Sold 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Specious 3 bedroom 2 bath Mobile Home light and bright some updates and painting done to get the home ready for sale. This home is SETTING ON LARGE LOT WITH OUTSIDE 9 x 12 STORAGE BUILDING. .. . subdivision has entry slip to Lake Conroe. Nice front porch and handicap ramp for entry.

25. 2017-12-13
    status Pending 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Specious 3 bedroom 2 bath Mobile Home light and bright some updates and painting done to get the home ready for sale. This home is SETTING ON LARGE LOT WITH OUTSIDE 9 x 12 STORAGE BUILDING. .. . subdivision has entry slip to Lake Conroe. Nice front porch and handicap ramp for entry.

26. 2017-11-03
    listed $59,800 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Specious 3 bedroom 2 bath Mobile Home light and bright some updates and painting done to get the home ready for sale. This home is SETTING ON LARGE LOT WITH OUTSIDE 9 x 12 STORAGE BUILDING. .. . subdivision has entry slip to Lake Conroe. Nice front porch and handicap ramp for entry.

27. 2017-06-16
    historical
28. 2017-06-12
    listed $39,000 Active
29. 2014-10-17
    historical
30. 2014-10-02
    listed $49,500 Active
31. 2014-02-26
    historical
32. 2014-02-12
    status Active
33. 2013-06-17
    historical
34. 2013-05-13
    listed $49,000 Active
35. 2002-07-31
    historical
36. 2002-04-02
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $381 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,670 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,289/yr (+$191/mo · 600.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,173
• − Property taxes: −$381
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,244
• Taxable income: $3,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$947
• After-tax cash flow: $5,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+143.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $145,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-10-29 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-01-06 Price Changed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Price Changed $2,800 HARMLS
• 2023-11-06 Listed for Rent $3,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-12-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-12-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-11-03 Listed $59,800 HARMLS
• 2017-06-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-06-12 Listed $39,000 HARMLS
• 2014-10-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-10-02 Listed $49,500 HARMLS
• 2014-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-02-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-05-13 Listed $49,000 HARMLS
• 2002-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-04-02 Listed $59,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2017): $381 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.