The Caprock Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$224,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily · 225 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the Caprock floorplan at Marigold in Kyle, TX. This home offers 1,434 square feet of living space across 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Entering the home you step into the foyer where there is a coat closet and laundry room. Walking further into the home you will notice the open concept kitchen and living room. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen you will find the 2 secondary bedrooms and full bathroom. Near the back of the home you are greeted with natural light from the windows in the living room. The main bedroom, bedroom 1, is located off the living room providing privacy. The main bedroom ensuite includes a walk-in-shower and an oversized closet. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, a Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Contact us today and find your home at Marigold.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Main bedroom ensuite
• Open concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MAIN BEDROOM ENSUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $224,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,102.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2701 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $182,694 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,102
• List price: $224,990
• Delta: -7.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
231 Orange Flame Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,434 (0%)	1mo	$234,220	$163	93
148 Orange Flame Blvd	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+4%)	5mo	$231,990	$156	82
1205 Celosia Loop	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+4%)	4mo	$231,990	$156	82
215 Orange Flame Blvd	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+10%)	1mo	$241,220	$153	72
747 Whoopers Loop	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-2%)	4mo	$221,999	$157	61
289 Speckled Belly Bnd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-2%)	5mo	$217,999	$154	61
433 Whoopers Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+3%)	2mo	$220,999	$150	59
114 Whoopers Loop	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (+13%)	5mo	$225,000	$139	47
763 Whoopers Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+10%)	5mo	$242,499	$154	42
792 Whoopers Loop	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+10%)	4mo	$239,999	$152	41
785 Whoopers Loop	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+12%)	3mo	$232,999	$146	41
281 Speckled Belly Bnd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+12%)	3mo	$233,999	$146	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-59,797
• Equity at exit: $36,247

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-92,065
• Equity at exit: $21,019

Cash invested: $68,068 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 66 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $232,249 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 161 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2701
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,275
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,647/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,127

Max offer price $208,845

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-153	+0% $-237	+5% $-321	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-381	-5% $-309	+0% $-237	+5% $-165	+10% $-92
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-175	base $-237	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,775
• Closing costs: $7,293
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
190 Celosia Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1486	$1,700	$1.14	10d	1	0.08mi
177 Orange Flame Blvd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$2,000	$1.35	10d	1	0.10mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	125d	1	0.67mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	74d	1	0.68mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	55d	1	0.68mi
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	3d	1	0.71mi
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	0d	1	0.71mi
142 Pink Footed Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	10d	1	0.74mi
142 Pink Footed Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	29d	1	0.74mi
433 Whoopers Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	33d	1	0.74mi
433 Whoopers Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	29d	1	0.74mi
224 Schuenemann Way Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,650	$1.12	3d	1	0.76mi
599 Arnold Loop Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,600	$1.46	37d	1	0.76mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	164d	1	0.78mi
222 Arnold Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,673	$1.10	112d	1	0.78mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	184d	1	0.79mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	164d	1	0.79mi
130 Harrison Xing Unit B Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,500	$1.51	10d	1	0.80mi
130 Harrison Xing Uhland, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,500	$1.51	55d	1	0.80mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1525	$1,299	$0.85	10d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $224,990 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $224,990 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $224,990 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $224,990 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $224,990 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $235,990 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $235,990 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $235,990 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $235,990 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $235,990 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $235,990 Active 214 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $235,990 Active 213 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $235,990 Active 212 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $235,990 Active 211 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $235,990 Active 210 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $235,990 Active 209 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $235,990 Active 208 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $235,990 Active 207 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $235,990 Active 206 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $235,990 Active 205 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $235,990 Active 204 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $235,990 Active 203 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $235,990 Active 202 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $235,990 Active 201 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $235,990 Active 200 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $235,990 Active 199 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $235,990 Active 198 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $235,990 Active 197 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $235,990 Active 196 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $235,990 Active 195 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $235,990 Active 194 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $235,990 Active 193 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $235,990 Active 192 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $235,990 Active 191 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $235,990 Active 190 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $235,990 Active 189 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $235,990 Active 188 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $235,990 Active 187 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $235,990 Active 186 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $235,990 Active 185 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $235,990 Active 184 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $235,990 Active 183 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $235,990 Active 181 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $235,990 Active 180 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $235,990 Active 179 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $235,990 Active 178 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $235,990 Active 177 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $235,990 Active 176 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $235,990 Active 175 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $235,990 Active 174 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,617
• − Property taxes: −$3,647
• − Insurance: −$1,216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$7,072
• Taxable loss: −$7,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Caprock Plan home in Uhland, TX is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior features, making it a solid investment with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if needed) — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal and value for potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $234,990 Zillow