5031 Crystal Ave · Ashtabula, OH 44004

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $91k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well maintained, newly painted and carpeted colonial has a lot to offer for a great price! Lot size is larger than the surrounding properties. House sits in middle with nice yard on both sides and back of house. Large 2 car garage and workshop is insulated and heated. First floor has an updated kitchen, dining room, spacious family room, full updated bathroom and bonus room/office, currently being used as a first floor master bedroom. 2 additional bedrooms are on the second floor.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Full basement
• 3-bedroom

Tags

• 2-CAR DETACHED GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED
• FULL BASEMENT
• 3-BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 8.2% in Ashtabula — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#420 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Ashtabula Area City (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #588 of 656 in OH (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Superior Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,151 of 1,584 statewide, top 73%, 436 students, 0% FRL); Lakeside Junior High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #579 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 505 students, 0% FRL); Lakeside High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #644 of 781 statewide, top 85%, 894 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 63% district-wide (63 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.83%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,828
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1727 E 49th St	0.21mi	2/1.0	988 (-5%)	2mo	$70,000	$71	80
1614 E 49th St	0.11mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-3%)	6mo	$115,000	$114	80
1719 E 48th St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+1%)	6mo	$79,900	$76	78
1952 E 45th St	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,040 (-0%)	2mo	$120,000	$115	76
4720 Topper Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+1%)	12mo	$51,000	$48	72
1611 E 48th St	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,168 (+12%)	6mo	$70,000	$60	59
2033 E 45th St	0.53mi	2/1.0	916 (-12%)	13mo	$132,500	$145	44
320 Fox Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+15%)	2mo	$96,000	$80	43
5425 Adams Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+10%)	2mo	$107,500	$93	42
5605 Washington Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-6%)	14mo	$119,500	$122	42
5515 Washington Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	1,152 (+10%)	15mo	$25,000	$22	39
5519 Washington Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,142 (+9%)	20mo	$99,000	$87	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,779
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $25,980
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44004

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,181/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $911

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $311	+0% $284	+5% $258	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $234	+0% $284	+5% $335	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $309	base $284	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $95,000 Active
2. 2019-08-08
   soldstatus $72,000 Closed 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   This well maintained, newly painted and carpeted colonial has a lot to offer for a great price! Lot size is larger than the surrounding properties. House sits in middle with nice yard on both sides and back of house. Large 2 car garage and workshop is insulated and heated. First floor has an updated kitchen, dining room, spacious family room, full updated bathroom and bonus room/office, currently being used as a first floor master bedroom. 2 additional bedrooms are on the second floor.

3. 2019-08-07
   soldstatus $72,000
4. 2019-06-25
   historical Contingent 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   This well maintained, newly painted and carpeted colonial has a lot to offer for a great price! Lot size is larger than the surrounding properties. House sits in middle with nice yard on both sides and back of house. Large 2 car garage and workshop is insulated and heated. First floor has an updated kitchen, dining room, spacious family room, full updated bathroom and bonus room/office, currently being used as a first floor master bedroom. 2 additional bedrooms are on the second floor.

5. 2019-05-14
   listed $70,000 Active 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   This well maintained, newly painted and carpeted colonial has a lot to offer for a great price! Lot size is larger than the surrounding properties. House sits in middle with nice yard on both sides and back of house. Large 2 car garage and workshop is insulated and heated. First floor has an updated kitchen, dining room, spacious family room, full updated bathroom and bonus room/office, currently being used as a first floor master bedroom. 2 additional bedrooms are on the second floor.

6. 2010-01-17
   historical
7. 2009-07-17
   listed $79,900
8. 2004-09-16
   soldstatus $59,900
9. 2003-10-08
   historical
10. 2003-07-08
    listed $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,181 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,181 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,181
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$496
• After-tax cash flow: $2,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashtabula Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904351
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,812
• Composite: 24.3/100
• National rank: #7712
• State rank: #588 of 656 in OH

Livability — Ashtabula

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #6883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashtabula, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 31,076
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 31,076
• Household income: $49,507
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.1

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.51%
• Current HPI: 260.7146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+41.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $95,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-08-08 Sold (MLS) $72,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-25 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2019-05-14 Listed $70,000 MLSNOW
• 2010-01-17 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2009-07-17 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW
• 2004-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2003-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2003-07-08 Listed $67,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,181 · +23.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.