2706 Cranmoor Dr · Campbell, FL 34758

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 471 Days on market

Built 1988 7,623 sqft lot Est $213k · 6% under $145/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW ROOF! This expansive home, is nestled on a large lot on a quiet street. Featuring ample parking with a 2-car carport it offers plenty of space for all your vehicles. Inside, the open floor plan flows effortlessly into a generous enclosed lanai with sliding open windows and ceiling fan, creating a perfect spot for outdoor relaxation. Large bedrooms and extra large living room with open living concept. Newer windows were installed in 2022. Community center has a pool, tennis courts, and basketball courts. A low-maintenance lifestyle in this vibrant could be just want you need in this amenity-filled community.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Community center
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported as $145; total annual fees reported as $1,740; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fees totaling $85 and an additional $60 fee (monthly); Association of Poinciana Village and Poinciana Village Nine Association; Association approval required; Pets allowed; Community clubhouse, playground, pool, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; One level; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a manufactured home double-wide body type
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Campbell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#848 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 604 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 471 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $200k implies a 388% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 471 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.12%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,784
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2711 Cranmoor Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+4%)	8mo	$200,000	$168	80
2612 Mcdaniel Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	10mo	$149,500	$142	68
2601 Salina Way	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+1%)	11mo	$214,000	$186	68
2633 Mcdaniel Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	9mo	$203,000	$188	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,639
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-10,231
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 604
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,711

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1918 Ancestry Trl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,200	$1.54	23d	1	1.04mi
1814 Lindens St Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,200	$1.50	23d	1	1.37mi
4327 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	3d	1	1.44mi
4273 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	20d	1	1.46mi
4273 Babbling Brook Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	4d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 471 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 470 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 469 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 468 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 466 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 465 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 462 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 461 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 460 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 457 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 456 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 455 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 454 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 453 DOM
15. 2025-12-20
    price $199,900
16. 2025-12-16
    status Active
17. 2025-07-17
    price $210,000
18. 2025-02-28
    listed $215,000 Active
19. 1999-03-12
    soldstatus $41,000
20. 1987-10-01
    soldstatus $30,195
21. 1981-10-01
    soldstatus $52,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$759/yr (+$63/mo · 84.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $3,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Campbell

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #848
• US rank: #21421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 60,595
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+278.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-28 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,195 Public Records
• 1981-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $900 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.