1406 N Dakota St · Baytown, TX 77520

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,995 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1978 0.27 ac lot $83/sqft · 18% below area Est $202k · 18% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! Home is priced to sell according to updates needed - being sold as-is. This 4-bedroom, 3-bath home sits on a beautiful corner lot with mature shade trees and offers endless potential for the right buyer. Conveniently located and backing directly to Bayland Park, you’ll enjoy easy access to picnic areas, walking and exercise spaces, playgrounds, a boat ramp, and a fishing pier right outside your backyard. This home is being sold as-is and priced accordingly, making it a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to add their own personal touch and build equity. With a desirable location and solid layout, this property is ready for its next chapter. Roo

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1978; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric and Gas)
• Interior features: Four total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 657 students, 91% FRL); Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 61% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,785 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,101
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -18.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1406 N Dakota St	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,995 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$83	94
1908 Mississippi St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,898 (-5%)	2mo	$185,000	$97	78
2114 Wyoming St	0.18mi	3/2.5	2,016 (+1%)	16mo	$244,900	$121	75
2103 Britton St	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,123 (+6%)	14mo	$259,999	$122	70
1505 Missouri St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,144 (+8%)	2mo	$330,000	$154	68
1904 Kansas St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,880 (-6%)	10mo	$214,000	$114	66
1700 Mississippi St	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,970 (-1%)	22mo	$260,000	$132	62
1917 Utah St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,742 (-13%)	5mo	$191,000	$110	53
1815 Oregon St	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,767 (-11%)	23mo	$214,999	$122	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-45,017
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-68,982
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$448 /mo · $5,377/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,834

Max offer price $120,785

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-204	+0% $-250	+5% $-297	+10% $-344
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-310	+0% $-250	+5% $-190	+10% $-130
Rate	-1.0pp $-167	-0.5pp $-208	base $-250	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $175,000 696-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $179,900 Active 696-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   historical $179,900 696-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   soldstatus
5. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,377 · $448/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,377 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$5,377
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,381
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,377 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.