Azalea 2107 Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$276,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,072 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Azalea brings a refreshing blend of comfort, value, and opportunity to Pattison-perfectly placed just north of Morton Ranch Road and minutes from Katy's growing west side. In one of Houston's fastest-rising corridors, this community pairs small-town warmth with modern living, including a pool, and inviting spaces that naturally support neighborly connection and local events. Families benefit from being zoned to Royal ISD, while quick access to major thoroughfares makes reaching Houston, the Energy Corridor, and nearby destinations simple. With everyday conveniences and new growth all around, Azalea offers a place where long-term value and an easygoing lifestyle come together.

Key facts

• Pool
• Zoned to royal isd
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• POOL
• ZONED TO ROYAL ISD

🏗️ New construction. The $276,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-337 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,240 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,990
• List price: $276,990
• Delta: -13.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
340 Magnolia View Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,168 (+5%)	1mo	$329,990	$152	85
309 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,272 (+10%)	3mo	$390,843	$172	79
312 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,861 (-10%)	1mo	$289,990	$156	77
313 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,311 (+12%)	2mo	$319,990	$138	77
321 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	1,861 (-10%)	3mo	$361,762	$194	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-80,244
• Equity at exit: $47,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-124,252
• Equity at exit: $27,667

Cash invested: $89,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 75 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 64.3 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,990 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $271,199

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-227	+0% $-337	+5% $-448	+10% $-558
Rent	-10% $-525	-5% $-431	+0% $-337	+5% $-243	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-176	-0.5pp $-256	base $-337	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-504

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,998
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $273,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Azalea 2107)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,072

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Azalea 2107)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $276,990 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $276,990 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $276,990 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $276,990 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $276,990 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $276,990 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $276,990 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $276,990 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $276,990 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $276,990 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $276,990 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $276,990 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $276,990 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $276,990 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $276,990 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $276,990 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $276,990 Active 94 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $276,990 Active 92 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $276,990 Active 91 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $276,990 Active 90 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $276,990 Active 89 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $276,990 Active 88 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $276,990 Active 87 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $276,990 Active 86 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $276,990 Active 85 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $276,990 Active 84 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $276,990 Active 83 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $276,990 Active 82 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $276,990 Active 81 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $276,990 Active 80 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $276,990 Active 79 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $276,990 Active 78 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $276,990 Active 77 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 76 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $276,990 Active 75 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $276,990 Active 74 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $276,990 Active 73 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $276,990 Active 72 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $276,990 Active 71 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $276,990 Active 69 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $276,990 Active 68 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $276,990 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $273,990 Active 66 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $273,990 Active 63 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $273,990 Active 61 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $273,990 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $273,990 Active 58 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $273,990 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $273,990 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,924
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$9,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,333
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,360–$31,080 screening

This home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior, and is ready for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Fresh flooring improves the home's appearance and adds value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance and tune-up — Ensures the system is running efficiently and adds to the home's comfort and value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $273,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Azalea 2107)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,072

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Azalea 2107)