3887 Lu Ln · Hahira, GA 31632

$314,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 2026 9,583 sqft lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $311k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction! 4 bedroom/2bath home featuring vaulted ceiling, custom cabinets and more. Master bath has large walk in shower with his/her vanities on each side. The master bath also has split closets! LVP throughout bedrooms and living area of the home.

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• New construction
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• VAULTED CEILING
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• WALK IN SHOWER
• HIS HER VANITIES
• SPLIT CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#161 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dewar Elementary (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #204 of 1,228 statewide, top 17%, 859 students, 50% FRL); Hahira Middle School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B+, #30 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 859 students, 32% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,566 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,488
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: 1.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3832 Bettys Pl	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-1%)	0mo	$304,000	$162	92
3879 Lu Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,948 (+3%)	4mo	$314,900	$162	92
3963 Lu Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,781 (-6%)	0mo	$302,000	$170	88
3950 Bettys Pl	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,851 (-2%)	1mo	$287,500	$155	85
3808 Renee Pl	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,938 (+2%)	1mo	$321,900	$166	84
3816 Renee Pl	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,927 (+2%)	3mo	$317,600	$165	83
3828 Lu Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,023 (+7%)	2mo	$332,524	$164	82
3946 Bettys Pl	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,779 (-6%)	1mo	$300,000	$169	79
3835 Lu Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,067 (+9%)	2mo	$317,000	$153	79
4005 Pearson Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,925 (+2%)	0mo	$345,900	$180	64
4185 Addalyn Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,811 (-4%)	3mo	$279,900	$155	58
3988 Nelson Hill Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (-14%)	3mo	$260,000	$160	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $142,336
• Equity at exit: $283,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $442,214
• Equity at exit: $611,781

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,724/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,776

Max offer price $248,535

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-241	-5% $-350	+0% $-459	+5% $-567	+10% $-676
Rent	-10% $-632	-5% $-545	+0% $-459	+5% $-372	+10% $-285
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-379	base $-459	+0.5pp $-540	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4112 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,750	$1.14	45d	1	0.61mi
4171 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,650	$1.07	22d	1	0.74mi
4194 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,795	$1.09	22d	1	0.77mi
4162 Nelson Hill Pl Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,900	$1.22	22d	1	0.78mi
5048 Planters Xing Hahira, GA	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,500	$1.16	22d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $314,900 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $314,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $314,900 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $314,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $314,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $314,900 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $314,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,900 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,900 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,900 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,900 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $314,900 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-02-18
    status Active 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    New Construction! 4 bedroom/2bath home featuring vaulted ceiling, custom cabinets and more. Master bath has large walk in shower with his/her vanities on each side. The master bath also has split closets! LVP throughout bedrooms and living area of the home.

20. 2026-02-05
    listed $314,900 Active 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    New Construction! 4 bedroom/2bath home featuring vaulted ceiling, custom cabinets and more. Master bath has large walk in shower with his/her vanities on each side. The master bath also has split closets! LVP throughout bedrooms and living area of the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$4,724
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$11,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hahira

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #10280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $314,900 SGMLS