19690 N Highway 99 #86 · Lodi, CA 95220

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition Est $131k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Please write a listing description for my new mobile home listing in a family park (Arbor Mobile Home Park) right off highway 99. Standout features include laminate flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, plantation shutters, white shaker cabinets with pullout storage in the kitchen, stainless steel cabinets, and NEW HVAC and water heater. All appliances (including refrigerator, washer, and dryer) are included. Well built shed adds convenience for storage of holiday decor, sentimental items, bikes, and other items. Located on a cul-de-sac and directly across from the community pool and guest parking, the location doesn't get much better. Welcome to easy living in Arbor Mobile Home Park!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Plantation shutters
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• PULLOUT STORAGE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: no (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Individual gas meter; Private water; Private sewer; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Updated / remodeled; Built in 1973
• Construction: Foam roof; Vinyl skirting; Citation make (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Shed(s); Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Pantry cabinet; Island; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Covered patio; Patio awning and carport awning; Dual-pane windows with window coverings; Pantry cabinet and kitchen island; Laminate kitchen counters; Dining bar, kitchen space for dining, and a formal dining area; Living room (other features)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside (in-unit); 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.81%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19690 N Hwy 99 #27	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$130,000	$90	96
19690 Highway 99 #147	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$110,000	$76	88
19690 N Highway 99 #26	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	3mo	$140,000	$91	86
19690 N Highway 99 #8	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$145,000	$108	85
19690 N Hwy 99 #89	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,439 (-0%)	14mo	$100,000	$69	82
19690 N Hwy 99 #110	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$124,000	$81	79
19690 N Hwy 99 #143	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	13mo	$130,000	$97	78
19690 N Highway 99 #170	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$100,000	$69	76
19690 N Highway 99 #55	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+12%)	14mo	$176,000	$109	68
19690 N Hwy 99 #39	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	23mo	$181,000	$135	66
19690 N Hwy 99 #3	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	21mo	$55,000	$44	55
19690 N Highway 99 #44	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-15%)	22mo	$164,900	$134	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $31,939
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $97,200
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95220

• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 Sonora Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	1.0	1032	$2,149	$2.08	2d	1	1.39mi
15 Forrest Ave Lodi, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $8,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $8,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in excellent condition with recent updates, including new kitchen and bathroom fixtures, fresh paint, and new HVAC and water heater. It is move-in ready and located on a cul-de-sac with easy access to community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Attracts more potential buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Attracts more potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 78,944
• Population (ZIP): 7,958

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 22% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 334.006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B