613 Baumgartner Rd · Harriman, TN 37748

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,257 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1950 1.03 ac lot $103/sqft · 42% below area Est $222k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Renovator's dream! Many updates already started—just waiting for your finishing touches. The home features all-new subfloors under existing coverings, some new plumbing, a newer roof, and newer exterior doors. Most windows have been replaced, along with a gas hot water heater. Electrical has been updated, and new baseboard heat installed. Additional highlights include pest deterrent tubes, a new vapor barrier in the crawl space, abundant storage, and two septic tanks on the property. With tons of potential at this price, this is an opportunity you don't want to miss! Cash only. All information deemed reliable; buyer to verify.

Key facts

• 1.03 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 167 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.1% in Harriman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#330 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Roane County (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #64 of 139 in TN (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 229 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roane County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,911
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -41.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 Robbins Rd	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,270 (+1%)	8mo	$200,000	$157	71
401 Woody Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	1mo	$245,000	$204	64
228 Fairmont Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,244 (-1%)	6mo	$84,525	$68	62
406 Baumgartner Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	24mo	$220,420	$177	56
230 Leslie St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,171 (-7%)	4mo	$90,000	$77	54
225 Capps Ln	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,434 (+14%)	1mo	$275,000	$192	52
1871 Ruritan Rd	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (-4%)	1mo	$249,000	$207	50
205 Carr Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-9%)	8mo	$184,500	$161	42
121 Briggs Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-14%)	22mo	$175,000	$162	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-11,447
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,177
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37748

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $665/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,065

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Woody Ave Unit 415 Harriman, TN	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.46mi
105 Highland Dr Unit A Harriman, TN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,425	$1.50	43d	1	0.62mi
633 Russell Ave Harriman, TN	2.0	1.0	1188	$1,400	$1.18	43d	1	0.80mi
1310 S Roane St Harriman, TN	2.0	1.0	1404	$950	$0.68	23d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-01-02
    listed $129,000 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Renovator's dream! Many updates already started—just waiting for your finishing touches. The home features all-new subfloors under existing coverings, some new plumbing, a newer roof, and newer exterior doors. Most windows have been replaced, along with a gas hot water heater. Electrical has been updated, and new baseboard heat installed. Additional highlights include pest deterrent tubes, a new vapor barrier in the crawl space, abundant storage, and two septic tanks on the property. With tons of potential at this price, this is an opportunity you don't want to miss! Cash only. All information deemed reliable; buyer to verify.

17. 2025-12-29
    historical $129,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Renovator's dream! Many updates already started—just waiting for your finishing touches. The home features all-new subfloors under existing coverings, some new plumbing, a newer roof, and newer exterior doors. Most windows have been replaced, along with a gas hot water heater. Electrical has been updated, and new baseboard heat installed. Additional highlights include pest deterrent tubes, a new vapor barrier in the crawl space, abundant storage, and two septic tanks on the property. With tons of potential at this price, this is an opportunity you don't want to miss! Cash only. All information deemed reliable; buyer to verify.

18. 2024-11-04
    soldstatus $95,000
19. 2024-11-01
    soldstatus $95,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Renovators dream!! Lots of renovations started, waiting for your finishing touches. The home has all new sub floors under coverings. Some new plumbing, newer exterior doors and roof. Most windows have also been replaced and gas hot water tank . Updated electrical and new baseboard heat. It even has pest deterrent tubes and a new vapor barrier in the crawl space! Lots of storage and 2 septic tanks on property!!! Tons of potential at this price. All information deemed reliable, buyer to verify.

20. 2024-11-01
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Renovators dream!! Lots of renovations started, waiting for your finishing touches. The home has all new sub floors under coverings. Some new plumbing, newer exterior doors and roof. Most windows have also been replaced and gas hot water tank . Updated electrical and new baseboard heat. It even has pest deterrent tubes and a new vapor barrier in the crawl space! Lots of storage and 2 septic tanks on property!!! Tons of potential at this price. All information deemed reliable, buyer to verify.

21. 2024-10-27
    status Pending
22. 2024-09-23
    price $108,000
23. 2024-09-19
    price $118,000
24. 2024-09-10
    price $126,000
25. 2024-09-10
    status Active
26. 2024-07-14
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
27. 2024-05-21
    price $118,000
28. 2024-04-16
    price $160,000
29. 2024-02-22
    price $117,000
30. 2024-02-04
    status Active
31. 2024-01-31
    historical Pending - Continue to Show - Inspection
32. 2023-12-05
    listed $127,000 Active
33. 2021-03-02
    soldstatus $26,500 Closed
34. 2021-02-25
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
35. 2021-02-17
    price $31,000
36. 2021-02-09
    price $32,000
37. 2021-01-28
    listed $33,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $665 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$251/yr (+$21/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$665
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$325
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$78
• After-tax cash flow: $1,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roane County
• NCES district ID: 4703590
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,611
• Composite: 25.0/100
• National rank: #7557
• State rank: #64 of 139 in TN

Livability — Harriman

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #21927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,021

Population outlook (Roane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,652 people
• By 2030: 47,648 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 43,306 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 39,294 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 32,318 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 27,137 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roane

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.5) · D 22.1% · R 76.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -54.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.5 2020: R+50.9 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+41.3 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.78%
• Current HPI: 305.724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+290.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Listed $129,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-12-29 Coming Soon $129,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-01 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-11-01 Sold (MLS) $95,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-27 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $108,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $118,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $126,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-09-10 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-07-14 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $118,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-04-16 Price Changed $160,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-02-22 Price Changed $117,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-02-04 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-01-31 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2023-12-05 Listed $127,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-03-02 Sold (MLS) $26,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-02-25 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2021-02-17 Price Changed $31,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-02-09 Price Changed $32,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-01-28 Listed $33,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $665 · +63.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.