31434 Casacalenda Ln · Roman Forest, TX 77336

$199,590

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,039 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $98/sqft · 19% below area Est $245k · 19% under $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Whitetail Floor Plan - The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.9% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $187,614 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,990
• List price: $199,590
• Delta: -18.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31422 Casacalenda Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$276,990	$136	97
918 Lago Laceno Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$272,990	$134	94
908 Lago Laceno Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$270,990	$133	93
906 Coperchiata Cir	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$271,990	$133	92
31413 Pratola Serra Cir	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$270,990	$133	90
31424 Pratola Serra Cir	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$280,990	$138	90
911 Capracotta Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+2%)	3mo	$329,990	$158	87
31517 Pianella Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,968 (-4%)	2mo	$288,990	$147	72
912 Capracotta Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-14%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	63
31507 San Floro Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-12%)	1mo	$304,990	$170	59
31504 Pianella Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	2mo	$271,990	$155	55
31515 Pianella Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	3mo	$277,990	$158	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,591
• Equity at exit: $29,760

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,856
• Equity at exit: $17,257

Cash invested: $55,885 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,047
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,994/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,989

Max offer price $199,590

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $204	+0% $135	+5% $66	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-36	-5% $50	+0% $135	+5% $220	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $186	base $135	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,898
• Closing costs: $5,988
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	3d	1	0.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,590 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,590 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 637-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,590 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,590 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,590 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,590 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,590 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,590 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,590 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,590 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,590 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,590 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,590 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,590 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    historical
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $199,590 Active
18. 2026-04-09
    price $199,590
19. 2026-04-07
    price $211,240
20. 2026-03-30
    listed $218,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,180
• − Property taxes: −$2,994
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,806
• Taxable loss: −$1,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $1,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to the kitchen and flooring to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior (every 3-5 years) — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops (every 10-15 years) — Improves kitchen functionality and appearance
• Resale Replace flooring (every 10-15 years) — Enhances overall home value and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior (every 3-5 years) — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops (every 10-15 years) — Improves kitchen functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale Replace flooring (every 10-15 years) — Enhances overall home value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $199,590 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $199,590 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $211,240 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $218,990 HARMLS