4020 Mortimer Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,489 sqft · Townhouse public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1951 $128/sqft · 8% below area Est $207k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

COMING SOON! This home is ready for a new owner. This home has 3 bedrooms 1 full bath and 1 half bathroom. A new roof was recently installed.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1951
• Listed 39 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported by assessor; Below-grade finished and unfinished areas reported by assessor; No lease considered; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Two total garage/parking spaces; Two driveway spaces; Off-site parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for heating and hot water; 100 Amp electric service; Phone service available; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Flat roof; Fee simple ownership; Property condition: Average
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; City/County road responsibility; Concrete road surface; Bus stop and metro/subway station within 1 mile; commuter rail 1–5 miles

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on upper level; One half bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Electric cooling (Other type)
• Interior features: Traditional floor plan; Formal dining room; Full basement, partially finished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Gas dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,824
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -8.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 Mortimer Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+12%)	9mo	$151,000	$91	63
5404 Crismer Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,667 (+12%)	1mo	$239,900	$144	62
3706 Hayward Ave	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,504 (+1%)	8mo	$245,000	$163	62
5561 Kennison Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,395 (-6%)	1mo	$142,000	$102	55
5312 Gist Ave	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,620 (+9%)	4mo	$240,000	$148	52
5424 Jonquil Ave	0.34mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,332 (-10%)	2mo	$200,000	$150	50
5118 Nelson Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-7%)	3mo	$219,000	$158	48
4105 Newbern Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-14%)	10mo	$234,900	$184	48
5419 Lynview Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (+14%)	7mo	$236,000	$139	47
3208 Ingleside Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,620 (+9%)	2mo	$225,000	$139	46
6507 Hopeton Ave	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,384 (-7%)	10mo	$227,000	$164	39
4411 Belvieu Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (+14%)	4mo	$190,000	$112	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,852
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,256
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,110/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,689

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $242	+0% $189	+5% $135	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $113	+0% $189	+5% $265	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $237	base $189	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3912 Mortimer Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,723	$2.26	45d	1	0.10mi
5343 Nelson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,215	$1.22	25d	1	0.39mi
3638 Fords Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,795	$1.79	45d	1	0.73mi
5340 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	45d	1	0.74mi
5301 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	45d	1	0.79mi
5000 Litchfield Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.79mi
3705 Midheights Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	0.81mi
3809 Clarks Ln Unit 301 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,600	$1.51	25d	1	0.87mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.89mi
6317 Pearce Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,600	$1.40	45d	1	0.89mi
3505 Clarks Ln Unit D2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	45d	1	0.95mi
4828 Beaufort Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,850	$1.54	25d	1	0.98mi
3735 Manchester Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	5d	1	1.00mi
2900 Taney Rd Apt 1A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	25d	1	1.00mi
3607 Labyrinth Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,100	$2.27	20d	5	1.03mi
3807 Bowers Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	45d	1	1.05mi
3727 Milford Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	45d	1	1.05mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	25d	1	1.05mi
6609 Eberle Dr Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,787	$1.77	3d	25	1.07mi
5115 Pembridge Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,150	$1.98	45d	1	1.16mi
3301 Clarks Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	801	$1,345	$1.68	4d	10	1.18mi
3601 Howard Park Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	45d	1	1.23mi
3617 Mohawk Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	45d	1	1.26mi
3615 Mohawk Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,610	$1.61	45d	1	1.26mi
2432 Everton Rd Unit 2435 A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	25d	1	1.33mi
5801 Western Run Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,979	$2.37	3d	7	1.33mi
6936 Blanche Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1410	$1,800	$1.28	45d	1	1.34mi
3014 Romaric Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,724	$1.96	5d	1	1.46mi
3014 Romaric Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	940	$1,709	$1.82	3d	1	1.46mi
3535 Flannery Ln Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	45d	1	1.47mi
6310 Greenspring Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1080	$1,940	$1.80	4d	6	1.47mi
3002 Fallstaff Manor Ct Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,879	$2.32	3d	10	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Coming Soon 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    historical $189,900 142-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,110 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,110
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$190
• After-tax cash flow: $2,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $189,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,110 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.