1716 Shaw Rd · Fayetteville, NC 28311

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1964 0.39 ac lot Est $153k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great property for investors. With TLC, this can be a great starter home. Home sold AS IS.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing brokerage: Longleaf Pine Realtors / DOUGLAS REAL ESTATE

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank and septic for sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Cleared, level lot; Interior lot; Paved public road access; Subdivision: JULIE HTS
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Storm doors; Full fenced yard; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Pantry; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Lake Middle (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #406 of 475 statewide, top 86%, 512 students, 99% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $120k implies a 1099% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.82%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1622 Shaw Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	996 (+4%)	7mo	$36,000	$36	83
927 Fiske Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,012 (+5%)	4mo	$127,000	$125	67
5212 Delco St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,095 (+14%)	1mo	$174,000	$159	59
1075 Brenda Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	944 (-2%)	11mo	$150,000	$159	55
5200 Delco Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	19mo	$181,500	$175	54
906 Fiske Dr	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,050 (+9%)	16mo	$155,000	$148	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-404
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $23,416
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28311

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
927 Fiske Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	926	$1,200	$1.30	23d	1	0.36mi
117 N Helen St Unit 117 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	23d	1	1.10mi
844 Anita Rd Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	14d	1	1.11mi
848 Tamarack Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	705	$1,171	$1.66	14d	49	1.16mi
4206 S Dowfield Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	23d	1	1.21mi
4202 S Dowfield Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	800	$930	$1.16	23d	1	1.22mi
3613 Pine Lake Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,645	$1.47	14d	31	1.22mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $119,900 Active
17. 2026-01-14
    price $155,900
18. 2025-10-23
    listed $159,000 Active
19. 2016-09-15
    soldstatus $10,000 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Great property for investors. With TLC, this can be a great starter home. Home sold AS IS.

20. 2016-06-29
    listed $20,500 90-char remark

    Show marketing remark (90 chars)

    Great property for investors. With TLC, this can be a great starter home. Home sold AS IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,790
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$429
• After-tax cash flow: $3,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,629
• Household income: $62,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.88%
• Current HPI: 203.0731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+484.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $119,900 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $155,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $159,000 LPRMLS
• 2016-09-15 Sold (MLS) $10,000 LPRMLS
• 2016-06-29 Listed $20,500 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · +63.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.