1825 Tesoro Loop NW · Los Lunas, NM 87031

$345,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 8,276 sqft lot $214/sqft · at area comps Est $349k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained home in Los Lunas offering a practical and functional layout. The home features separate living and dining areas, providing defined spaces for everyday living and gatherings. The generously sized primary bedroom offers comfortable space, along with two additional guest rooms. Step outside to a partially covered back patio and a fully rocked backyard, designed for low-maintenance upkeep. With a simple floor plan and easy-care exterior, this property is ready for its next owner to make it their own.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-912/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Los Lunas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#46 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,938/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $293,815 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,489
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -1.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1630 Tierra Alta Ct NW	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,700 (+5%)	1mo	$333,000	$196	81
1436 Terrazas Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-2%)	3mo	$349,900	$221	80
1706 Tesoro Loop NW	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+10%)	2mo	$400,000	$226	77
1724 Valle Vista Rd NW	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (+5%)	2mo	$325,000	$192	66
1770 Cerro Crestado Dr NW	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+7%)	1mo	$343,000	$199	64
1469 Calle Oeste NW	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (-1%)	1mo	$364,990	$228	60
1616 Cerro Crestado Dr NW	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+8%)	0mo	$325,000	$187	59
1465 Calle Oeste NW	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-6%)	1mo	$344,990	$227	56
2009 Hermosa Ct NW	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,523 (-6%)	2mo	$290,000	$190	52
1494 Brillo Del Cielo St NW	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-12%)	1mo	$349,990	$246	49
1461 Calle Oeste NW	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-12%)	0mo	$339,990	$239	47
1485 Calle Oeste NW	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-12%)	2mo	$334,990	$236	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-45,165
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $25,324
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,970/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,034

Max offer price $331,577

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $22	+0% $-76	+5% $-174	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-192	+0% $-76	+5% $40	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $12	base $-76	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 Tierra Verde Loop NW Los Lunas, NM	3.0	3.0	1917	$3,600	$1.88	25d	1	0.09mi
1748 Valle Vista Rd NW Los Lunas, NM	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,125	$1.26	17d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $345,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $345,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $345,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    listed $350,000 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained home in Los Lunas offering a practical and functional layout. The home features separate living and dining areas, providing defined spaces for everyday living and gatherings. The generously sized primary bedroom offers comfortable space, along with two additional guest rooms. Step outside to a partially covered back patio and a fully rocked backyard, designed for low-maintenance upkeep. With a simple floor plan and easy-care exterior, this property is ready for its next owner to make it their own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,970 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,970 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$4,970
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,821
• − Management: −$2,821
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$6,800
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Los Lunas is ready for its next owner to make it their own. It features a practical layout with separate living and dining areas, and a low-maintenance exterior and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — Los Lunas

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #12347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Lunas, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• City population: 47,514
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $350,000 Southwest MLS