2105 Mount Olive Rd · Lake Land'Or, VA 23015

$248,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1995 2.33 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is subject to auction, list price based upon an appraisal. Seller will not accept an offer to purchase prior to the scheduled auction. Don't miss an opportunity to own this three bedroom, two and a half bath manufactured home that is situated on 2.33 acres +/-. Three car detached garage for parking and storage needs. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Property Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. All closing costs including transfer taxes are to be paid by the buyer at closing. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * *

Key facts

• 2.33 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (3 spaces); Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured / modular property; Single-story (main-level living)
• Construction: Shingle roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: No basement; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Family room; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-889/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Land'Or — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,252 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,142
• Equity at exit: $37,112

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,749
• Equity at exit: $21,520

Cash invested: $69,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23015

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,449/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,936

Max offer price $235,809

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-4	+0% $-74	+5% $-145	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-147	+0% $-74	+5% $-1	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-11	base $-74	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,225
• Closing costs: $7,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 641-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $248,900 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-03-05
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2026-01-04
   status Active
10. 2025-12-22
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2025-12-17
    price $260,000
12. 2025-11-04
    price $289,000
13. 2025-10-13
    price $299,000
14. 2025-09-24
    price $309,000
15. 2025-08-26
    price $329,000
16. 2025-08-08
    listed $339,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,449 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$592/yr (+$49/mo · 40.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,942
• − Property taxes: −$1,449
• − Insurance: −$1,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$7,241
• Taxable loss: −$5,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Land'Or

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,384

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.58%
• Current HPI: 262.1463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-04 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $260,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $289,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $309,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $329,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $339,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,449 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.