Woodhaven Plan · Heartland, TX 75114

$229,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 673 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 672 days

🏗️ New construction. The $229,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $266,862.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W A Martin El (math 41% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 71% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 41% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 956 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 673 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 673 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,862
• List price: $229,999
• Delta: -13.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3902 Spencer Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (+3%)	1mo	$255,000	$166	73
2530 Smoke Passage St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-2%)	2mo	$209,549	$142	68
1132 Colt Creek Way	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	2mo	$217,499	$130	65
2992 Cedeno Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,577 (+5%)	1mo	$250,000	$159	59
2538 Smoke Passage St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	2mo	$245,999	$148	58
2924 Hearts Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	2mo	$232,999	$165	57
2909 Hearts Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	2mo	$237,859	$169	55
2933 Hearts Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	2mo	$204,999	$145	55
2410 Horsemanship Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+14%)	2mo	$235,499	$138	55
1907 Wild Orchard Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-7%)	0mo	$212,000	$152	54
3011 Rosemount Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$181	49
2906 Rosemount Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+12%)	2mo	$265,000	$158	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,463
• Equity at exit: $39,790

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-55,306
• Equity at exit: $23,073

Cash invested: $74,721 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 97 active · 73 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $260,000 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 956
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,003/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,334

Max offer price $248,113

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $-37	+0% $-130	+5% $-222	+10% $-314
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-215	+0% $-130	+5% $-44	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-62	base $-130	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,716
• Closing costs: $8,006
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1734 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,095	$1.28	35d	1	0.19mi
1734 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,095	$1.28	30d	1	0.19mi
1275 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,750	$1.36	38d	1	0.24mi
1264 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	23d	1	0.24mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	52d	1	0.29mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,709	$1.03	37d	1	0.30mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	92d	1	0.31mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	0.31mi
2911 S Griffin Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,450	$1.91	12d	1	0.34mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	92d	1	0.34mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	0.35mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.36mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	92d	1	0.36mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.37mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.38mi
3909 Chesapeake Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,300	$1.31	12d	1	0.38mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	0.41mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.41mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	51d	1	0.43mi
2710 Trail Ride Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	9d	1	0.44mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,900	$1.03	73d	1	0.45mi
1507 Trick Riding Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,800	$0.97	30d	1	0.45mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	41d	1	0.50mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.50mi
2908 Hearts Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	3.0	1266	$1,750	$1.38	92d	1	0.59mi
1930 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,865	$1.32	92d	1	0.60mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	92d	1	0.62mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	53d	1	0.62mi
1925 Wild Orchard Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,850	$1.46	26d	1	0.63mi
2915 Acacia Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1982	$2,400	$1.21	8d	1	0.63mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2232	$3,100	$1.39	17d	1	0.70mi
3221 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,450	$1.47	28d	1	0.71mi
2311 Alcantara Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,665	$1.36	34d	1	0.71mi
3936 Bellingham Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,100	$1.08	32d	1	0.73mi
2511 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,844	$1.49	17d	1	0.73mi
1441 Reiner Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,115	$1.56	29d	1	0.73mi
1209 Kings Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,975	$1.46	50d	1	0.73mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	92d	1	0.75mi
2603 Khaju Grv Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	52d	1	0.75mi
2403 Hesperus Ave Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,750	$1.21	21d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $229,999 Active 673 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $229,999 Active 671 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $229,999 Active 670 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $229,999 Active 669 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $229,999 Active 668 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $229,999 Active 665 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $229,999 Active 664 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $229,999 Active 663 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $229,999 Active 662 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $229,999 Active 660 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $229,999 Active 658 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $229,999 Active 657 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $229,999 Active 656 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $229,999 Active 655 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $229,999 Active 654 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $229,999 Active 652 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $229,999 Active 651 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $229,999 Active 650 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $229,999 Active 649 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $229,999 Active 648 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 647 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 646 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $229,999 Active 645 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $229,999 Active 644 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $229,999 Active 643 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 641 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $229,999 Active 640 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $229,999 Active 639 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $229,999 Active 638 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 637 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 636 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 635 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $229,999 Active 634 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $229,999 Active 633 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,999 Active 632 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $229,999 Active 630 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $229,999 Active 628 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $229,999 Active 626 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $229,999 Active 625 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $229,999 Active 622 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $229,999 Active 621 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,999 Active 620 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,999 Active 619 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 617 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,999 Active 613 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,999 Active 612 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 611 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,999 Active 608 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 607 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 606 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,003
• − Insurance: −$1,334
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$7,763
• Taxable loss: −$6,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-74/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W A Martin El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

---

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $226,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $225,999 Zillow
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $224,499 Zillow
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $221,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $248,999 Zillow
• 2024-10-03 Listed $246,999 Zillow