5629 Girard Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14304

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1976 3,090 sqft lot $139/sqft · 31% below area Est $188k · 31% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great value-add opportunity in the City of Niagara Falls! Now vacant and easy to show, this solid ranch-style home offers strong bones, well-maintained mechanicals, and endless potential for its next owner. Previously tenant-occupied for over 20 years, the home is ready for cosmetic updates and your personal touch. Featuring a partially finished basement, there is additional living or recreation space already in place, adding to the home’s overall potential. With a little sweat equity, this property presents an excellent opportunity to build value quickly. The sale includes three additional lots (5635 Girard, 5641 Girard and 5645 Girard), providing extra space, flexibility, and future possibilities. Priced below comparable homes in the area, this is an ideal option for investors or owner-occupants looking to customize and create equity. Check out the open house this Saturday 3/28 from 1:00-3:00pm.

Key facts

• 3,090 sq ft lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 88 days

Tags

• SOLID RANCH STYLE HOME
• WELL MAINTAINED MECHANICALS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE
• THREE ADDITIONAL LOTS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $129,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$188,253) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.53%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,253
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -31.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6721 Lindbergh Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-2%)	1mo	$143,500	$157	60
436 67th St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-2%)	4mo	$157,000	$172	59
5818 Stephenson Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+5%)	17mo	$174,000	$178	56
154 62nd St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	904 (-3%)	13mo	$175,000	$194	51
639 67th St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (+2%)	18mo	$195,000	$205	48
660 67th St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,025 (+10%)	12mo	$150,000	$146	45
6716 Lindbergh Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	888 (-5%)	20mo	$70,000	$79	45
53 Kies Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+8%)	10mo	$240,000	$238	42
222 61st St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	816 (-12%)	16mo	$150,000	$184	39
673 67th St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+6%)	20mo	$142,000	$144	39
130 62nd St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (+10%)	17mo	$102,000	$100	34
45 Kies Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+8%)	21mo	$185,000	$184	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,206
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,506
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14304

• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,945/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $144	+0% $107	+5% $70	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $57	+0% $107	+5% $157	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $140	base $107	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
730 66th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	748	$963	$1.29	2d	1	0.55mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	15d	1	1.01mi
3626 Dudley Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	44d	1	1.05mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	1.28mi
7328 Buffalo Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$990	$1.24	44d	1	1.28mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	11d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $134,900 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Great value-add opportunity in the City of Niagara Falls! Now vacant and easy to show, this solid ranch-style home offers strong bones, well-maintained mechanicals, and endless potential for its next owner. Previously tenant-occupied for over 20 years, the home is ready for cosmetic updates and your personal touch. Featuring a partially finished basement, there is additional living or recreation space already in place, adding to the home’s overall potential. With a little sweat equity, this property presents an excellent opportunity to build value quickly. The sale includes three additional lots (5635 Girard, 5641 Girard and 5645 Girard), providing extra space, flexibility, and future possibilities. Priced below comparable homes in the area, this is an ideal option for investors or owner-occupants looking to customize and create equity. Check out the open house this Saturday 3/28 from 1:00-3:00pm.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $139,900 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Great value-add opportunity in the City of Niagara Falls! Now vacant and easy to show, this solid ranch-style home offers strong bones, well-maintained mechanicals, and endless potential for its next owner. Previously tenant-occupied for over 20 years, the home is ready for cosmetic updates and your personal touch. Featuring a partially finished basement, there is additional living or recreation space already in place, adding to the home’s overall potential. With a little sweat equity, this property presents an excellent opportunity to build value quickly. The sale includes three additional lots (5635 Girard, 5641 Girard and 5645 Girard), providing extra space, flexibility, and future possibilities. Priced below comparable homes in the area, this is an ideal option for investors or owner-occupants looking to customize and create equity. Check out the open house this Saturday 3/28 from 1:00-3:00pm.

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $149,900 Active 916-char remark

    Show marketing remark (916 chars)

    Great value-add opportunity in the City of Niagara Falls! Now vacant and easy to show, this solid ranch-style home offers strong bones, well-maintained mechanicals, and endless potential for its next owner. Previously tenant-occupied for over 20 years, the home is ready for cosmetic updates and your personal touch. Featuring a partially finished basement, there is additional living or recreation space already in place, adding to the home’s overall potential. With a little sweat equity, this property presents an excellent opportunity to build value quickly. The sale includes three additional lots (5635 Girard, 5641 Girard and 5645 Girard), providing extra space, flexibility, and future possibilities. Priced below comparable homes in the area, this is an ideal option for investors or owner-occupants looking to customize and create equity. Check out the open house this Saturday 3/28 from 1:00-3:00pm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,945 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,070 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,945
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,221
• − Management: −$1,221
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$200
• After-tax cash flow: $1,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,208
• Household income: $66,660
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 698.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.77%
• Current HPI: 280.3295
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $134,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,945 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.