1511 Gaines Rd · Eagle Lake, FL 33880

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 732 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1974 0.61 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your own 3/4-acre mini farm oasis! This fully fenced and gated property is a secure haven offering space for a variety of living needs, farm animals and plenty of room for parking. Large carport with garage attached. Mature trees provide serene shade on this picturesque retreat. The property includes a shed with chicken coops and pig pens, perfect for your feathered and four-legged friends. Updated remodeled 3BR, 1.5BA mobile home with an open floor plan, new fixtures, and an inside laundry room for convenience. Plenty of room for dogs, goats, boats, and RVs with electric hookup. Grow your garden with crystal clear well water. Enjoy the front porch with rocking chairs in screened

Key facts

• Gated property
• Fully fenced
• Large carport

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• GATED PROPERTY
• LARGE CARPORT
• MATURE TREES
• SHED WITH CHICKEN COOPS
• PIG PENS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned R-1; Farm-friendly (suitable for chicken, horse, livestock, nursery) with 2 wells and 1 septic; Mature landscaping with oak trees; Corner, oversized paved lot (approximately 0.61 acres / 1/2 to less than 1 acre); Asphalt road access
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (10 x 20); 2-space carport; Boat, oversized and RV parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Phone service available
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; Southwest-facing; Completed/ready condition; Customized wheelchair accessible
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Covered screened porch; Outdoor grill; Rain gutters; Chain-link fencing; Finished RV port; Shed(s), storage and workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Aluminum-framed windows with blinds; Whole house reverse-osmosis water filtration; Bonus room; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in FL, #3,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Lake Elementary School (math 49% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 697 students, 59% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,266
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,411
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,202/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,343

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-22
   historical $1,500
2. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-04
   listed $155,000 Active
4. 2026-03-21
   listed $1,500
5. 2026-03-07
   historical $1,800
6. 2026-03-02
   historical
7. 2026-01-07
   listed $1,800
8. 2025-08-30
   listed $175,000 Active
9. 2023-11-09
   soldstatus $155,000
10. 2023-10-03
    historical
11. 2023-09-07
    price $165,000
12. 2023-08-23
    listed $180,000 Active
13. 1997-09-04
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,202 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,202 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,202
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$92
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 4,397
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Rental Removed $1,500 Avail
• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed for Rent $1,500 Avail
• 2026-03-07 Rental Removed $1,800 Avail
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed for Rent $1,800 Avail
• 2025-08-30 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-23 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+41.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,202 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.