35 Cumberland Trl · Smallwood, NY 12720

$159,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 510 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1946 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate Smallwood seasonal with new kitchen and appliances, new cedar bathroom, 18x24 private rear deck, roof 5 years old, new washer, screened in porch, all furniture included, close to lake and all Bethel ammenities. Electric: Circuit Breaker, BasementDescription: Piers, LandFeatures: Cleared Lot,

Key facts

• Expansive back deck
• Wood burning stove
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• EXPANSIVE BACK DECK
• DEDICATED FIRE PIT AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (NYSEG); Cable available; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family home; Actual condition
• Construction: Log siding; Crawl space foundation; Other foundation type; Built as single-family residence
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Gas grill; Back yard; Front yard; Partially wooded lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Attic fan for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Accessible bedroom, closets, and full bath; No basement (crawl space)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($993/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.8% in Smallwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,148 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L Cooke School (592 students, 71% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $160k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $62,092
• Equity at exit: $111,704

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $176,479
• Equity at exit: $213,259

Cash invested: $44,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12720

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,392/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $159,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,875
• Closing costs: $4,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 E Mitchell Smallwood, NY	2.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	18d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,500 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,500 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,500 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,500 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,500 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,500 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,500 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,500 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,500 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,500 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,500 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $159,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,934
• − Property taxes: −$2,392
• − Insurance: −$798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,640
• Taxable loss: −$1,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$395
• After-tax cash flow: $1,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smallwood

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1148
• US rank: #23933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smallwood, NY
• City population: 456
• Population (ZIP): 434

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.11%
• Current HPI: 449.7929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+170.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $159,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-07 Listed $70,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-29 Sold (MLS) $40,000 HGMLS
• 2010-04-24 Listed $59,000 HGMLS