1604 Kipling St · Liberty, TX 77575

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1952 6,669 sqft lot $106/sqft · at area comps Est $144k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2/1/1 in the heart of Liberty. This cozy frame home is situated on a fenced lot, offering just the right amount of outdoor space for easy living. Beautiful trees and a covered back patio add to the appeal. Inside, you'll find a comfortable living room and a spacious family room, perfect for entertaining, family gatherings or just relaxing! Don't miss your chance to own a lovely property in a great location! No flooding and no HOA.

Key facts

• No flooding
• Great location
• Covered back patio

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• GREAT LOCATION
• NO FLOODING
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Liberty ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #464 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,856
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -3.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2535 Edgewood St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,331 (+2%)	5mo	$189,000	$142	74
1848 Kipling St	0.27mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,288 (-2%)	5mo	$167,599	$130	74
1834 San Jacinto	0.23mi	2/1.5	1,232 (-6%)	7mo	$79,000	$64	71
1016 Lynnwood Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,265 (-3%)	6mo	$170,000	$134	68
2024 Pine St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,195 (-9%)	6mo	$185,000	$155	64
1616 N Travis St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,146 (-12%)	1mo	$168,000	$147	62
1707 N San Jacinto St	0.10mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,464 (+12%)	8mo	$183,000	$125	56
1903 Adams St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,383 (+6%)	18mo	$199,900	$145	56
912 N Travis St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,336 (+2%)	13mo	$215,000	$161	52
1205 Jarrett St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,448 (+11%)	1mo	$285,000	$197	50
829 Canfield St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+1%)	15mo	$79,400	$60	46
1908 Reese St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,490 (+14%)	17mo	$248,900	$167	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,856
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,193
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77575

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,646/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,275

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Woods Dr Liberty, TX	2.0	2.0	1236	$1,575	$1.27	12d	1	0.40mi
3004 Neyland St Liberty, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	1d	1	1.38mi
3304 Lincoln St Liberty, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,850	$1.07	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Pending 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,000 Pending 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,000 Pending 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,000 Pending 95 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,000 Pending 94 DOM
7. 2026-02-26
   listed $139,000 Active 460-char remark

   Show marketing remark (460 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 2/1/1 in the heart of Liberty. This cozy frame home is situated on a fenced lot, offering just the right amount of outdoor space for easy living. Beautiful trees and a covered back patio add to the appeal. Inside, you'll find a comfortable living room and a spacious family room, perfect for entertaining, family gatherings or just relaxing! Don't miss your chance to own a lovely property in a great location! No flooding and no HOA.

8. 1998-01-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,646 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,646 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,646
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,503
• − Management: −$1,503
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$147
• After-tax cash flow: $2,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827450
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,931
• Composite: 32.11/100
• National rank: #5803
• State rank: #464 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #9688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, TX
• City population: 16,617
• Population (ZIP): 16,617

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.17%
• Current HPI: 204.9372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 1998-01-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,646 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.