1921 Jones St · St. Joseph, MO 64501

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1912 5,320 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, all level living. This property is a project property that would be perfect for someone looking to make it their own, use as a flip property or an investor who wants to add it to their investment portfolio.

Key facts

• 5,320 sq ft lot
• Built 1912
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Bungalow; Living area listed as 980 (above grade)
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Composition roof; Property is over 100 years old
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 5,320 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling (has cooling)
• Interior features: Bungalow floor plan; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($897 rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 26.7% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coleman Elem. (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 349 students, 99% FRL); Robidoux Middle (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #328 of 391 statewide, top 84%, 390 students, 99% FRL); Lafayette High (math 16% / reading 47%, grade F, #371 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 717 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.97%
• DSCR: 4.25
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1921 Jones St	0.00mi	2/1.0	980 (0%)	0mo	$30,000	$31	100
1901 Jones St	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,018 (+4%)	5mo	$120,000	$118	88
1912 Holman St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	955 (-3%)	8mo	$99,000	$104	76
1607 Grand Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	961 (-2%)	2mo	$100,000	$104	68
1521 N 15th St	0.46mi	2/1.0	912 (-7%)	5mo	$169,900	$186	63
1015 Corby St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,028 (+5%)	3mo	$75,000	$73	61
1806 N 22nd St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,068 (+9%)	0mo	$123,900	$116	60
1308 N 10th St	0.65mi	2/1.0	936 (-4%)	7mo	$150,000	$160	56
415 N 26th St	0.61mi	2/1.0	864 (-12%)	2mo	$139,900	$162	50
705 N 9 St	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,032 (+5%)	7mo	$124,900	$121	50
2234 Felix St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	912 (-7%)	3mo	$115,000	$126	47
605 N 12th St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (+14%)	0mo	$135,000	$121	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $27,679
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.86×
• Total profit: $66,026
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64501

• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $340/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $251

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $519	+0% $511	+5% $502	+10% $494
Rent	-10% $440	-5% $475	+0% $511	+5% $546	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $526	-0.5pp $518	base $511	+0.5pp $503	+1.0pp $495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 N 24th St Unit 1 St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	933	$925	$0.99	45d	1	0.24mi
425 N 25th St St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	45d	1	0.52mi
2408 Jules St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	0.60mi
2901 Frederick Ave Saint Joseph, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0	900	$835	$0.93	45d	1	0.75mi
1015 Faraon St St Joseph, MO	1.0	1.0	743	$820	$1.10	45d	1	0.76mi
516 N 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	45d	1	0.76mi
809 Hall St Unit B St Joseph, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	45d	1	0.81mi
303 S 13th St St Joseph, MO	3.0	1.5	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.88mi
201 S 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	45d	1	0.96mi
1416 N 3rd St Unit 1418 St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	45d	1	1.13mi
1106 Olive St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	45d	1	1.31mi
3128 Midland St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	1104	$975	$0.88	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $30,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $30,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   remarks 249-char remark
4. 2026-06-02
   listed $30,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$340
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$862
• − Management: −$862
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $6,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $4,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• County: Buchanan County · 32,150 people
• City population: 44,382
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 10,689
• Household income: $46,731
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.20%
• Current HPI: 157.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $30,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-11-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $340 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.