31618 Heguy Pass · Fulshear, TX 77441

$249,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,549 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 6,364 sqft lot $161/sqft · 12% below area Est $284k · 12% under $56/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming one-story home in the desirable Polo Ranch community of Fulshear! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers privacy with no back neighbors and features a spacious covered patio and large backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The open-concept living area flows into a well-equipped kitchen with a gas stove, microwave, dishwasher, stainless steel sink, and a central island (no cooktop). Additional highlights include: • Tile flooring in main areas, carpet in bedrooms • Inside laundry room with gas connections • Primary suite with walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and a stand-up shower • Secondary bath with a shower/tub combo • Walk-in pantry and a 2-car garage Conveniently located near community amenities with easy access to shopping and dining—don’t miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Covered patio
• Gas stove

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE BACKYARD
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1601 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,891 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.70%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,520
• List price: $249,950
• Delta: -11.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8411 Balding Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,549 (0%)	1mo	$255,000	$165	94
8511 Balding Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,549 (0%)	2mo	$255,000	$165	89
32511 Summer Vista Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-0%)	6mo	$303,990	$196	81
31723 Wild Meadow Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+3%)	3mo	$345,990	$216	77
31739 Wild Meadow Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+3%)	4mo	$348,990	$218	77
8023 Prospect Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-4%)	6mo	$309,000	$209	71
32519 Summer Vista Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+8%)	4mo	$308,990	$185	68
31731 Regal Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,403 (-9%)	2mo	$314,990	$225	67
7911 Grandstand Pkwy	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+7%)	1mo	$285,000	$172	63
8014 Wandering Glider Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+6%)	2mo	$324,990	$198	54
8034 Wandering Glider Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+6%)	4mo	$324,155	$198	53
7747 Rolling Stone Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,393 (-10%)	6mo	$300,000	$215	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-71,571
• Equity at exit: $37,268

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-118,170
• Equity at exit: $21,611

Cash invested: $69,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,490 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1601
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,201 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$659 /mo · $7,905/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,696

Max offer price $180,891

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-320	+0% $-391	+5% $-462	+10% $-532
Rent	-10% $-565	-5% $-478	+0% $-391	+5% $-304	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-265	-0.5pp $-327	base $-391	+0.5pp $-456	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,488
• Closing costs: $7,498
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31351 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	0d	1	0.59mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	93d	1	0.59mi
7422 French Quarter Ct Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,895	$1.37	14d	1	0.82mi
30509 Front St Fulshear, TX	2.0	2.0	1121	$1,872	$1.67	4d	1	1.08mi
693 Canvas Ave Fulshear, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1199	$2,348	$1.96	0d	23	1.41mi

HOA detail $56/mo · $672/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $249,950 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $249,950 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $249,950 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $249,950 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $249,950 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $249,950 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $249,950 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $249,950 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $249,950 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,950 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,950 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,950 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $249,950 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $249,950 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,950 Active 199 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,950 Active 198 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,950 Active 197 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $249,950 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $249,950 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,950 Active 194 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,950 Active 193 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $249,950 Active 192 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $249,950 Active 191 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $249,950 Active 190 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $249,950 Active 188 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,950 Active 187 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $249,950 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $249,950 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $249,950 Active 184 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $249,950 Active 183 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $249,950 Active 182 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $249,950 Active 181 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $249,950 Active 180 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $249,950 Active 179 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $249,950 Active 178 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $249,950 Active 177 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $249,950 Active 175 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $249,950 Active 173 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $249,950 Active 172 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $249,950 Active 169 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $249,950 Active 168 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $249,950 Active 167 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $249,950 Active 166 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $249,950 Active 164 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $259,950 Active 160 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,950 Active 159 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,950 Active 158 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,950 Active 155 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,950 Active 154 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,950 Active 153 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,905 · $659/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,905 · $659/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,001
• − Property taxes: −$7,905
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,113
• − Management: −$2,113
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$7,271
• Taxable loss: −$8,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,139
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,745–$23,235 screening

This charming one-story home in Fulshear is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a few cosmetic updates that would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and reduces allergens ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Enhances kitchen functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulshear, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

---

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $259,950 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $259,950 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $274,950 HARMLS
• 2022-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-01 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-03-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-11 Price Changed $203,040 HARMLS
• 2019-10-20 Listed $208,040 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,905 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.