1411 N Fourth St #21 · Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured · 117 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2023 Excellent condition 2,400 sqft lot $311/sqft · 6% below area Est $211k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.5

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the Tiny House Village in beautiful Flagstaff- a quaint community in the heart of Flagstaff offering low-maintenance living with a true neighborhood feel! This FURNISHED 2 bedroom, 1 bath home features many upgrades, including AC and a beautifully landscaped and fenced in backyard with turf. Wether this is a lock and leave property, summer home or your primary residence, you cant go wrong! Energy-efficient upgrades include enhanced insulation, 2x6 exterior walls, and dual-pane windows. Paved driveway included. MONTHLY LAND LEASE: 1,311.26 covers water, sewer, trash, snow removal, and clubhouse access. Enjoy affordable living with comfort, convenience, and community.

Key facts

• Furnished home
• Enhanced insulation
• Dual pane windows

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• FURNISHED HOME
• LANDSCAPED FENCED BACKYARD
• ENERGY EFFICIENT UPGRADES
• ENHANCED INSULATION
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-841/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.2% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thomas M Knoles Elementary School (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 490 students, 37% FRL); Sinagua Middle School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #147 of 218 statewide, top 69%, 1,016 students, 40% FRL); Coconino High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,528 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,205 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,263
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -5.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 N Fourth St #19	0.00mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	12mo	$204,105	$319	90
1411 N Fourth St #17	0.00mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	21mo	$210,000	$328	82
1411 N Fourth St #7	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	17mo	$202,070	$333	72
1411 N Fourth St #6	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	17mo	$207,882	$342	72
1411 N Fourth St #8	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	18mo	$202,070	$333	72
1411 N Fourth St #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	693 (+8%)	14mo	$199,478	$288	71
1411 N Fourth St #28	0.02mi	2/2.0	711 (+11%)	11mo	$218,236	$307	67
1411 N Fourth St Unit 27	0.00mi	2/2.0	711 (+11%)	14mo	$223,574	$314	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-38,999
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-48,829
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $206,052 ($322/sqft)
• Median days on market: 168 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86004

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $188,853

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-1	+0% $-70	+5% $-139	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-135	+0% $-70	+5% $-5	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-20	base $-70	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 N 4th St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	944	$2,875	$3.05	5d	32	0.42mi
1914 E Mountain View Ave Apt 207 Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$1,695	$3.39	5d	1	0.72mi
2410 N West St Unit B Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,600	$2.46	139d	1	1.06mi
4255 E Soliere Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$2,296	$2.37	4d	15	1.22mi
1201 E Ponderosa Pkwy Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$2,050	$2.84	3d	16	1.34mi
1105 E Ponderosa Pkwy Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,875	$2.54	5d	13	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on a land lease
• HOA & community: Community has an associationCommunity clubhouse

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity availableCable availablePhone available
• Home design: Single wide home
• Construction: Built (year source: county)Pillar/post/pier foundationBuilt by Champion Homes
• Exterior features: PatioPerimeter fencingLandscaped lotLevel topographyPaved, publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air electric heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenBreakfast barDouble-pane windowsSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $199,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $199,000 Active 89 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 84 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 79 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    price $199,000 Active 77 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $208,000 Active 77 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $208,000 Active 76 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $208,000 Active 75 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $208,000 Active 74 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $208,000 Active 73 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $208,000 Active 72 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $208,000 Active 71 DOM
42. 2026-08-07
    days on market $208,000 Active 70 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $208,000 Active 69 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $208,000 Active 68 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $208,000 Active 67 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $208,000 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $208,000 Active 63 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $208,000 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-07-29
    days on market $208,000 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-27
    days on market $208,000 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home in Flagstaff is in excellent condition with energy-efficient upgrades, a well-maintained exterior, and a landscaped and fenced-in backyard. It is ready to move in and is an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing — The well-maintained landscaping and fenced-in backyard add to the overall appeal and value of the property, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Energy-efficient upgrades — The energy-efficient upgrades, including enhanced insulation, 2x6 exterior walls, and dual-pane windows, improve the home's energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Paved driveway — The paved driveway provides easy access and parking for the property, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Furnishings — The furnished home is ready to move in, which is a significant advantage for both resale and rental. It saves potential buyers or renters the hassle of finding and furnishing a new home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Thomas M Knoles Elementary School F AZ #570/1,109 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Sinagua Middle School F AZ #147/218 Nat'l #12,279/14,009 High Coconino High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 150,645 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,394
• Household income: $81,172
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Native American 12% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.67%
• Current HPI: 411.8577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on a land lease
• HOA & community: Community has an associationCommunity clubhouse

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity availableCable availablePhone available
• Home design: Single wide home
• Construction: Built (year source: county)Pillar/post/pier foundationBuilt by Champion Homes
• Exterior features: PatioPerimeter fencingLandscaped lotLevel topographyPaved, publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air electric heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenBreakfast barDouble-pane windowsSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $208,000 NAZMLS
• 2024-06-06 Sold (MLS) $212,250 NAZMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $204,105 NAZMLS