1411 N Fourth St #21 · Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$208,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 2,400 sqft lot Est $204k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the Tiny House Village in beautiful Flagstaff- a quaint community in the heart of Flagstaff offering low-maintenance living with a true neighborhood feel! This FURNISHED 2 bedroom, 1 bath home features many upgrades, including AC and a beautifully landscaped and fenced in backyard with turf. Wether this is a lock and leave property, summer home or your primary residence, you cant go wrong! Energy-efficient upgrades include enhanced insulation, 2x6 exterior walls, and dual-pane windows. Paved driveway included. MONTHLY LAND LEASE: 1,311.26 covers water, sewer, trash, snow removal, and clubhouse access. Enjoy affordable living with comfort, convenience, and community. Buyer t

Key facts

• Furnished home
• Enhanced insulation
• Dual pane windows

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• FURNISHED HOME
• LANDSCAPED FENCED BACKYARD
• ENERGY EFFICIENT UPGRADES
• ENHANCED INSULATION
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on a land lease
• HOA & community: Community has an association; Community clubhouse

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single wide home
• Construction: Built (year source: county); Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built by Champion Homes
• Exterior features: Patio; Perimeter fencing; Landscaped lot; Level topography; Paved, publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Double-pane windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $208k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $208k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,880 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.64%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,160
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 N Fourth St #19	0.00mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	9mo	$204,105	$319	92
1411 N Fourth St #6	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	14mo	$207,882	$342	75
1411 N Fourth St #7	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	14mo	$202,070	$333	75
1411 N Fourth St #8	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	607 (-5%)	15mo	$202,070	$333	74
1411 N Fourth St #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	693 (+8%)	11mo	$199,478	$288	73
1411 N Fourth St #28	0.02mi	2/2.0	711 (+11%)	8mo	$218,236	$307	70
1411 N Fourth St Unit 27	0.00mi	2/2.0	711 (+11%)	11mo	$223,574	$314	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,252
• Equity at exit: $31,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $18,735
• Equity at exit: $17,984

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86004

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$260 /mo · $3,120/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,820

Max offer price $208,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $540	+0% $468	+5% $396	+10% $324
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $372	+0% $468	+5% $563	+10% $658
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $521	base $468	+0.5pp $414	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 N 4th St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	944	$3,332	$3.53	44d	35	0.34mi
1965 E Mountain View Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$2,300	$2.62	44d	13	0.67mi
2410 N West St Unit B Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,600	$2.46	44d	1	1.06mi
4015 E Soliere Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$3,505	$4.38	44d	1	1.14mi
4255 E Soliere Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$2,258	$2.33	44d	24	1.22mi
1201 E Ponderosa Pkwy Flagstaff, AZ	1.0	1.0	585	$1,650	$2.82	44d	8	1.35mi
1105 E Ponderosa Pkwy Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,875	$2.54	44d	11	1.43mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $208,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $208,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $208,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $208,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $208,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $208,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $208,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $208,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $208,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $208,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    remarks 691-char remark
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $208,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $208,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $208,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $208,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $208,000 Active 2 DOM
19. 2026-05-24
    listed $208,000 Active
20. 2024-06-06
    soldstatus $212,250 Closed
21. 2024-05-21
    historical
22. 2024-05-21
    listed $204,105

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$3,120
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable income: $2,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$587
• After-tax cash flow: $5,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home in Flagstaff is in excellent condition with energy-efficient upgrades, a well-maintained exterior, and a landscaped and fenced-in backyard. It is ready to move in and is an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing — The well-maintained landscaping and fenced-in backyard add to the overall appeal and value of the property, making it more attractive for both resale and rental.
• Both Energy-efficient upgrades — The energy-efficient upgrades, including enhanced insulation, 2x6 exterior walls, and dual-pane windows, improve the home's energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making it more attractive for both resale and rental.
• Both Paved driveway — The paved driveway provides easy access and parking for the property, making it more attractive for both resale and rental.
• Both Furnishings — The furnished home is ready to move in, which is a significant advantage for both resale and rental. It saves potential buyers or renters the hassle of finding and furnishing a new home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and fencing — The well-maintained landscaping and fenced-in backyard add to the overall appeal and value of the property, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Energy-efficient upgrades — The energy-efficient upgrades, including enhanced insulation, 2x6 exterior walls, and dual-pane windows, improve the home's energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Paved driveway — The paved driveway provides easy access and parking for the property, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Furnishings — The furnished home is ready to move in, which is a significant advantage for both resale and rental. It saves potential buyers or renters the hassle of finding and furnishing a new home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,394
• Household income: $81,172
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Native American 12% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.67%
• Current HPI: 411.8577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $208,000 NAZMLS
• 2024-06-06 Sold (MLS) $212,250 NAZMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $204,105 NAZMLS