7366 SE 250 Road Rd · Collins, MO 64738

$299,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,278 sqft · Other public records · 231 Days on market

Built 1989 3.00 ac lot $132/sqft · at area comps Est $475k · 37% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-837 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (57.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (57.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#701 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Osceola (rural): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #105 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Clair County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,494 (57.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.96%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 19.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $475,000
• List price: $299,999
• Delta: -36.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $109,928
• Equity at exit: $270,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $365,424
• Equity at exit: $582,832

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64738

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 19.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $152,059

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,999 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,999 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,999 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,999 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,999 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-02-25
    soldstatus
16. 2026-01-13
    status Active
17. 2026-01-13
    price $299,999
18. 2025-10-24
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,153/yr (+$96/mo · 65.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$15,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 2923270
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $30,573
• Composite: 37.21/100
• National rank: #4470
• State rank: #105 of 324 in MO

Livability — Collins

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #22806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,375

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,710 people
• By 2030: 8,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,481 · -14.1%
• By 2050: 6,814 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 5,836 · -33.0%
• By 2100: 4,989 · -42.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.6) · D 19.2% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.7pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -60.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.6 2020: R+59.2 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.16%
• Current HPI: 354.1494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $299,999 SOMO
• 2025-10-24 Listed $325,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,757 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.