2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit X201 · Hudson Bend, TX 78734

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Condo · 392 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition $208/sqft · 32% below area Est $370k · 32% under $825/mo HOA · 38% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Villas on Travis! This 2-bed, 2-bath condo offers 1,204 square feet of lakeside living with access to resort-style amenities on Lake Travis. The open layout is all on one level. Features include a spacious family room with a fireplace, a private primary suite with double vanities, walk-in closet, and direct patio access, and a covered balcony perfect for relaxing outdoors. This unit offers a ton of natural light and views of Lake Travis from the covered outdoor living area! Enjoy the added value, comfort and efficiency of a brand-new full A/C system (installed June 2025, $10K investment), new garage disposal, washer/dryer in unit, and a refrigerator conveying with the sale of the property. Community amenities include two pools, hot tubs, fitness center, sport and tennis courts, day dock with tram to Lake Travis, and gated security. HOA covers water, sewer, cable, internet, and exterior maintenance for easy lock-and-leave living. Located in highly rated Lake Travis ISD, with quick access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Whether you’re seeking a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, Unit X-201 delivers. A must see!

Key facts

• Covered balcony
• Lakeside living
• Natural light

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED BALCONY
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-817 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (47.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 1.6% in Hudson Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,006 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Travis El (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 763 students, 38% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 392 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,795 (47.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 392 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.00%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,000
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -32.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit U-254	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,204 (0%)	6mo	$245,000	$203	90
2918 Ranch Road 620 Rd #161	0.01mi	2/2.5	1,386 (+15%)	1mo	$375,000	$271	72
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit T250	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,395 (+16%)	7mo	$255,000	$183	65
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit L-176	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,386 (+15%)	7mo	$370,000	$267	62
3139 Chisholm Trl	1.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,271 (+6%)	4mo	$389,900	$307	48
2108 Indian Creek Rd	0.92mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+10%)	4mo	$425,000	$322	41
2001 Rain Water Dr	1.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,478 (+23%)	2mo	$409,000	$277	33
2003 Rain Water Dr	1.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+22%)	3mo	$459,000	$311	32
3819 Ranch Road 620 N	0.86mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-12%)	12mo	$379,000	$359	30
14508 Thunderhead Rd	1.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (-10%)	14mo	$330,000	$303	28
15102 Iowa St	0.72mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-13%)	12mo	$190,000	$181	27
14613 Branding Iron Pass	1.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,032 (-14%)	12mo	$350,000	$339	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-88,542
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-127,264
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78734

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 631
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$825
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,231

Max offer price $131,795

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-644	-5% $-731	+0% $-817	+5% $-903	+10% $-990
Rent	-10% $-990	-5% $-904	+0% $-817	+5% $-730	+10% $-643
Rate	-1.0pp $-691	-0.5pp $-753	base $-817	+0.5pp $-882	+1.0pp $-948

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #265 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,100	$1.74	98d	1	0.01mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N Apt 214 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,950	$1.68	9d	1	0.01mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #204 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,995	$1.72	9d	1	0.01mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N Apt 272 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1395	$2,195	$1.57	99d	1	0.02mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit V267 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,100	$1.81	139d	1	0.06mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit Y194 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,195	$1.82	100d	1	0.06mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit J162 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	70d	1	0.06mi
2918 Ranch to Market Road 620 Unit 172 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,995	$1.72	139d	1	0.11mi
15216 Kevin Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	119d	1	0.41mi
15314 Oklahoma St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,150	$1.95	4d	1	0.57mi
2208 N FM 620 Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1126	$2,082	$1.85	0d	11	0.60mi
15303 Texas St Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,400	$1.94	9d	1	0.65mi
2258 N FM 620 Austin, TX	1.0	1.0	717	$942	$1.31	9d	1	0.69mi
2240 N FM 620 Austin, TX	1.0	1.0	717	$1,065	$1.49	9d	1	0.69mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit A Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,495	$1.29	117d	1	0.80mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,379	$1.19	94d	1	0.80mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,379	$1.19	63d	1	0.80mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,600	$1.38	139d	1	0.80mi
15104 Texas St Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	804	$1,875	$2.33	139d	1	0.84mi
1509 Oreilly Ct Apt B Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	9d	1	1.00mi
1505 Oreilly Ct Unit C Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	9d	1	1.02mi
1505 Oreilly Ct Unit A Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	9d	1	1.02mi
1505 Oreilly Ct Unit D Austin, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,095	$1.56	113d	1	1.02mi
3904 Highland Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$3,000	$2.05	9d	1	1.13mi
3248 Brass Buttons Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,200	$1.78	119d	1	1.13mi
1104 Buffalo Gap Rd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$3,500	$2.63	0d	1	1.29mi
2712 Geronimo Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,950	$2.22	42d	1	1.33mi
2627 Geronimo Trl Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	912	$2,750	$3.02	70d	1	1.46mi
16216 Stewart Rd Unit B Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1307	$1,995	$1.53	4d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail $825/mo · $9,900/yr condo

• Likely covers: watersewerinternetcableexterior maint.poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $250,000 Active 392 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 391 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $250,000 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 387 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 385 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 384 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $250,000 Active 383 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 382 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $250,000 Active 381 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $250,000 Active 380 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 374 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 373 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 372 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 369 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 368 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $250,000 Active 367 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $250,000 Active 366 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $250,000 Active 365 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $250,000 Active 363 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 362 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 361 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 360 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 359 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $250,000 Active 358 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $250,000 Active 357 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 356 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $250,000 Active 355 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 354 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $250,000 Active 353 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $250,000 Active 352 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 351 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $250,000 Active 349 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $250,000 Active 348 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 347 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 346 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $250,000 Active 344 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 343 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 342 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 341 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 338 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 336 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $250,000 Active 335 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $250,000 Active 333 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 331 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 330 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 329 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 328 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − HOA: −$9,900
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$14,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,020–$18,060 screening

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and access to resort-style amenities, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Travis El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Hudson Bend Middle B- TX #256/1,662 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Lake Travis H S B- TX #199/1,632 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Hudson Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1006
• US rank: #17863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,145
• Household income: $130,784
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.08%
• Current HPI: 216.0323
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $275,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-16 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-10 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $299,900 Unlock MLS
• 1999-07-14 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 1999-03-01 Listed — Unlock MLS