2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit X201 · Hudson Bend, TX 78734

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Condo · 346 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition $208/sqft · 33% below area Est $374k · 33% under $825/mo HOA · 37% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Villas on Travis! This 2-bed, 2-bath condo offers 1,204 square feet of lakeside living with access to resort-style amenities on Lake Travis. The open layout is all on one level. Features include a spacious family room with a fireplace, a private primary suite with double vanities, walk-in closet, and direct patio access, and a covered balcony perfect for relaxing outdoors. This unit offers a ton of natural light and views of Lake Travis from the covered outdoor living area! Enjoy the added value, comfort and efficiency of a brand-new full A/C system (installed June 2025, $10K investment), new garage disposal, washer/dryer in unit, and a refrigerator conveying with the sale of the property. Community amenities include two pools, hot tubs, fitness center, sport and tennis courts, day dock with tram to Lake Travis, and gated security. HOA covers water, sewer, cable, internet, and exterior maintenance for easy lock-and-leave living. Located in highly rated Lake Travis ISD, with quick access to shopping, dining, and entertainment. Whether you’re seeking a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, Unit X-201 delivers. A must see!

Key facts

• Covered balcony
• Lakeside living
• Natural light

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED BALCONY
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-790 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (45.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (45.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 1.6% in Hudson Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,006 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Travis El (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 763 students, 38% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 547 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,665 (45.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.55%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $373,583
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -33.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit U-254	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,204 (0%)	4mo	$245,000	$203	92
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit T250	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,395 (+16%)	6mo	$255,000	$183	66
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit L-176	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,386 (+15%)	5mo	$370,000	$267	64
3139 Chisholm Trl	1.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,271 (+6%)	2mo	$389,900	$307	49
2108 Indian Creek Rd	0.92mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+10%)	2mo	$425,000	$322	42
2001 Rain Water Dr	1.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,478 (+23%)	1mo	$409,000	$277	34
2003 Rain Water Dr	1.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+22%)	2mo	$459,000	$311	33
3819 Ranch Road 620 N	0.86mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-12%)	10mo	$379,000	$359	31
14508 Thunderhead Rd	1.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (-10%)	13mo	$330,000	$303	29
1900 Westward Ho Trl	1.02mi	2/2.0	980 (-19%)	14mo	$199,000	$203	28
15102 Iowa St	0.72mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-13%)	10mo	$190,000	$181	28
14613 Branding Iron Pass	1.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,032 (-14%)	10mo	$350,000	$339	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-86,785
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-123,312
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78734

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 547
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$825
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,231

Max offer price $135,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-617	-5% $-704	+0% $-790	+5% $-877	+10% $-963
Rent	-10% $-966	-5% $-878	+0% $-790	+5% $-702	+10% $-614
Rate	-1.0pp $-664	-0.5pp $-727	base $-790	+0.5pp $-855	+1.0pp $-921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #265 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,100	$1.74	52d	1	0.01mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #204 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,095	$1.81	31d	1	0.01mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N Apt 272 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1395	$2,195	$1.57	52d	1	0.02mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit Y194 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,195	$1.82	53d	1	0.06mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit J162 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	24d	1	0.06mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit V267 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,100	$1.81	93d	1	0.06mi
2918 Ranch to Market Road 620 Unit 172 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,995	$1.72	93d	1	0.11mi
15216 Kevin Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	73d	1	0.41mi
15314 Oklahoma St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,300	$2.08	13d	1	0.57mi
2208 N FM 620 Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$2,136	$1.84	9d	15	0.60mi
15303 Texas St Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,400	$1.94	73d	1	0.65mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit A Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,495	$1.29	71d	1	0.80mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,600	$1.38	93d	1	0.80mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,379	$1.19	47d	1	0.80mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,379	$1.19	17d	1	0.80mi
15104 Texas St Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	804	$1,875	$2.33	93d	1	0.84mi
1505 Oreilly Ct Unit D Austin, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,095	$1.56	67d	1	1.02mi
1505 Oreilly Ct Unit C Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,475	$1.84	73d	1	1.02mi
3248 Brass Buttons Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,200	$1.78	73d	1	1.13mi
1104 Buffalo Gap Rd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$3,500	$2.63	9d	1	1.29mi
2627 Geronimo Trl Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	912	$2,750	$3.02	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail $825/mo · $9,900/yr condo

• Likely covers: watersewerinternetcableexterior maint.poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 346 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $250,000 Active 344 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $250,000 Active 343 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 342 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 341 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 338 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $250,000 Active 336 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $250,000 Active 335 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $250,000 Active 333 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 331 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 330 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 329 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 328 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $250,000 Active 327 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 325 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 324 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 323 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $250,000 Active 322 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $250,000 Active 321 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 320 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 319 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $250,000 Active 318 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,000 Active 317 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 316 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 314 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $250,000 Active 313 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 312 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 310 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 309 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 308 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 307 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $250,000 Active 306 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $250,000 Active 305 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $250,000 Active 304 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $250,000 Active 303 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 301 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 299 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    statusdays on market $250,000 Active 298 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 295 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    statusdays on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 294 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 293 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,000 Active 292 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 290 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 286 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 285 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $250,000 Active 284 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 281 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 280 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 279 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 278 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − HOA: −$9,900
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$13,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,020–$18,060 screening

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and access to resort-style amenities, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Travis El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Hudson Bend Middle B- TX #256/1,662 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Lake Travis H S B- TX #199/1,632 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Hudson Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1006
• US rank: #17863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,145
• Household income: $130,784
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.08%
• Current HPI: 216.0323
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $275,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-16 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-10 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $299,900 Unlock MLS
• 1999-07-14 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 1999-03-01 Listed — Unlock MLS