3226 Palm Desert Ln · Missouri City, TX 77459

$256,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1993 3,384 sqft lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $265k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3226 Palm Desert Lane in Missouri City’s established Pebble Beach community. This well-maintained home features an open-concept layout with high ceilings, abundant natural light, and a spacious living area perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient half bathroom is located on the first floor for guests. The kitchen offers quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar that flows seamlessly into the dining area. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the first floor, while upstairs includes additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a versatile loft or sitting area. Enjoy the private backyard with patio space, gree

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Private backyard
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• PATIO SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure available; Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Association: Marshall Management Group, Inc.; Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 1993; Single‑story entry configuration
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fenced backyard; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 14); Bedroom on the second floor (14 x 10); Bedroom on the second floor (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Additional second-floor bathroom (7 x 10)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Quartz counters; 2 fireplaces; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quail Valley El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 564 students, 64% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,359 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,877
• List price: $256,500
• Delta: -3.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3226 Palm Desert Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,809 (0%)	0mo	$256,500	$142	98
3311 La Costa Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,817 (+0%)	3mo	$295,000	$162	88
3322 Ashmont Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,784 (-1%)	2mo	$215,000	$121	84
3229 Continental Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,942 (+7%)	4mo	$245,000	$126	81
3327 Springhill Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,841 (+2%)	1mo	$265,000	$144	80
3215 Springhill Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,784 (-1%)	4mo	$259,000	$145	80
3315 Golden Tee Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,786 (-1%)	2mo	$175,000	$98	64
2207 Cottonwood Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-6%)	4mo	$225,000	$132	56
2211 Cottonwood Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-8%)	7mo	$233,400	$139	52
3306 High Pine Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,042 (+13%)	7mo	$249,000	$122	41
2850 Creekway Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	2,072 (+14%)	5mo	$269,000	$130	41
2610 Creekway Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-13%)	4mo	$219,900	$140	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,845
• Equity at exit: $53,795

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-61,238
• Equity at exit: $49,828

Cash invested: $71,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,345
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,506/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,450

Max offer price $230,432

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-75	+0% $-148	+5% $-220	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-237	+0% $-148	+5% $-58	+10% $31
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-82	base $-148	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,125
• Closing costs: $7,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	14d	1	0.27mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	0.36mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	26d	1	0.37mi
2608 Grand Plantation Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	14d	1	0.74mi
3611 Duncaster Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1926	$2,100	$1.09	21d	1	0.83mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	18d	1	1.03mi
1547 Revolution Way Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,300	$1.37	14d	1	1.27mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	22d	1	1.31mi
1620 Good Day Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1364	$1,790	$1.31	45d	1	1.32mi
1420 Revolution Way Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1649	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	1.39mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 874-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 874-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $256,500 Active 874-char remark
4. 2019-11-13
   soldstatus
5. 1995-12-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,506 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,506 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,368
• − Property taxes: −$5,506
• − Insurance: −$1,282
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,173
• − Management: −$2,173
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,462
• Taxable loss: −$6,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $-307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $256,500 HARMLS
• 2019-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,506 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.