3883 Elmira Dr · Kettering, OH 45439

$144,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1955 7,841 sqft lot $139/sqft · 23% below area Est $189k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AS-IS SALE: Great opportunity with this 1,040 sq. ft. , 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom brick ranch! The interior features an efficient divided kitchen with laundry hookups. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard and an attached 1.5-car garage with a built-in workbench and custom cabinets. Enjoy incredible local convenience located right around the corner from Southdale Elementary, neighborhood parks, local dining, and major Kettering transit routes. Property is owner-occupied; please respect their privacy and do not disturb. All showings must be formally scheduled. Please use ShowingTime.

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• Attached garage
• Major transit routes

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• BUILT-IN WORKBENCH
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARKS
• MAJOR TRANSIT ROUTES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Attached one-car garage
• Utilities: Standard utilities (water/sewer/power not specified)
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Residential lot (approx. 60 x 125)

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (approx. 12x8)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (approx. 10x9, 13x10, 13x12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($659/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.4% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#61 in OH, #922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Kettering City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #277 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $144,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.62%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,631
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -23.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3890 Endover Rd	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$180,000	$173	94
3785 Endover Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	0mo	$187,500	$180	92
1681 Hillwood Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	2mo	$205,000	$197	90
3690 Endover Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$180,000	$173	86
1770 Big Hill Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$192	77
2169 Finland Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$213,000	$197	73
2218 Finland Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	2mo	$189,000	$175	72
4476 Hannaford St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$190,000	$176	65
3565 Lodi Pl	0.39mi	3/1.0	936 (-10%)	0mo	$197,000	$210	65
3743 Cordell Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-10%)	1mo	$155,000	$166	65
2190 Renshaw Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$194,080	$180	63
4518 Harbison St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$233,000	$216	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-19,883
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,401
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45439

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,711/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3928 Elmira Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,550	$1.49	2d	1	0.08mi
3924 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	813	$1,800	$2.21	2d	1	0.22mi
3929 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	2.0	1.0	788	$750	$0.95	18d	1	0.25mi
3657 Elmira Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	936	$1,450	$1.55	43d	1	0.25mi
1643 Archdeacon Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,450	$1.39	21d	1	0.25mi
3781 Keswick Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,750	$1.68	2d	1	0.27mi
4042 Ellery Ave Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	43d	1	0.31mi
4217 Fulton Ave Moraine, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$1,325	$1.66	43d	1	0.53mi
3401 Southdale Dr #5 Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	21d	1	0.59mi
2621 Nyack Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	14d	1	0.87mi
2800 Cadillac St Moraine, OH	3.0	1.0	748	$1,295	$1.73	2d	1	1.21mi
1333 Central Park Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	846	$1,350	$1.60	14d	1	1.25mi
5237 Belle Isle Dr Unit 5237 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	960	$1,025	$1.07	43d	1	1.37mi
5295 Belle Isle Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	856	$950	$1.11	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $144,900 Active 586-char remark
2. 2024-01-02
   soldstatus $25,157,500
3. 2021-05-13
   soldstatus $8,700
4. 1996-07-01
   soldstatus $1,900,000
5. 1996-07-01
   soldstatus $1,900,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,711 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,711 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$3,711
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$1,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$397
• After-tax cash flow: $1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kettering City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904418
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,353
• Composite: 51.89/100
• National rank: #1653
• State rank: #277 of 656 in OH

Livability — Kettering

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #922

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kettering, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 73,116
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 11,914
• Household income: $52,035
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 381.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.06%
• Current HPI: 287.2064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-92.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $144,900 Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,157,500 Public Records
• 2021-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $8,700 Public Records
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,900,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,900,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,711 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.