6 Harrow Pl · Leisure Knoll, NJ 08759

$299,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,594 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1986 6,969 sqft lot $188/sqft · 25% below area Est $398k · 25% under $239/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Adult community Rare 3-bed, 3-bath home in Leisure Knoll! This spacious property offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their own updates and finishing touches, bringing the home back to its former glory with a little TLC. Enjoy a clubhouse, heated saltwater pool, fitness center, bocce, tennis, and shuffleboard courts, library, social clubs, travel club, arts activities, plus lake dock and gazebo access for fishing. FHA Case # 351- 468243 Open to Nonprofits and Government Agencies Only first. FHA Financing UI (Uninsured) 203K Eligible FHA $100 Down Eligible Sold AS IS. Buyer pays all transfer fees and is responsible for all inspections and/or any township requirements, smoke

Key facts

• Tennis
• Fitness center
• Shuffleboard courts

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• BOCCE
• TENNIS
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Leisure Knoll subdivision
• HOA & community: HOA with clubhouse and common area; HOA fee $239 monthly; HOA covers trash, common area, pool, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Ranch model; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Stove; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Garbage disposal; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Leisure Knoll — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $299k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,890 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,409
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -24.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
93 Mansfield Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (-3%)	2mo	$440,000	$284	77
9 Romford Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (+1%)	1mo	$337,500	$209	76
23 Twyford Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (+8%)	2mo	$445,000	$260	65
42 Twyford Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (+8%)	2mo	$390,000	$228	65
63 Sandhurst St	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-10%)	1mo	$289,500	$203	63
4 Harrogate Ln	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (+8%)	2mo	$310,000	$181	61
15 Frilham Ln	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,427 (-10%)	2mo	$230,000	$161	59
63 Red Hill Rd	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (+8%)	2mo	$417,000	$243	59
569B Mayfair Rd	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (+0%)	2mo	$285,000	$178	58
27 Cromwell Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-10%)	0mo	$282,000	$197	58
10 Saint Paul Pl	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-10%)	1mo	$292,500	$205	55
647C Dunstable Ct Unit C	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (-8%)	2mo	$300,000	$204	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-62,875
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-72,875
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,017/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$239
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $258,544

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Marlow Ave Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1551	$2,400	$1.55	1d	1	0.14mi
52 Rockingham Way #1 Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.5	1848	$3,275	$1.77	43d	1	0.99mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	1d	6	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $239 · $2,868/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   listed $299,000 Active 800-char remark
2. 1987-03-30
   soldstatus $124,868

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,017 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,731 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,714/yr (+$143/mo · 42.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,017
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,476
• − Management: −$2,476
• − HOA: −$2,868
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,880
• After-tax cash flow: $-869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Knoll

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #11285

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Knoll, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+139.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $299,000 MOMLS
• 1987-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $124,868 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,017 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.