8 Graham Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$699,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1964 0.29 ac lot Est $794k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

South of the highway short distance to town, transportation and restaurants and short drive to beautiful ocean beaches! attractive looking ranch thats needs TLC but has tons of potential, nice corner lot full unfinished basement hardwood floors double sided fireplace mature trees and landscaping

Key facts

• Corner lot
• Mature trees
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• SHORT DISTANCE TO TOWN
• SHORT DRIVE TO OCEAN BEACHES
• CORNER LOT
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• DOUBLE SIDED FIREPLACE
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Walk-out basement access; Partial attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $700k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,535/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $196k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $295k; list at $700k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $699,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.20%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $793,776
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Argonne Rd W	0.25mi	3/1.0	980 (-11%)	6mo	$707,000	$721	65
2 Flocee Ln	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,109 (+0%)	16mo	$800,000	$721	63
47 King St	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,012 (-8%)	12mo	$840,000	$830	54
25 Seaside Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+6%)	15mo	$812,500	$691	51
3 Elm St	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+9%)	16mo	$735,000	$613	50
54 Ocean Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	11mo	$705,000	$588	46
64 Shore Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-10%)	5mo	$750,000	$759	44
27 Atlantic Ave	0.37mi	2/1.5 (-1)	990 (-10%)	19mo	$675,000	$682	43
9 Squiretown Rd	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,266 (+15%)	7mo	$910,000	$719	36
33A Fanning Ave Unit A	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+7%)	23mo	$780,000	$662	34
2 Marinea Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+14%)	14mo	$1,090,000	$865	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $126,225
• Equity at exit: $104,372

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $582,902
• Equity at exit: $60,523

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,535 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$598 /mo · $7,180/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,002
• Net cashflow: $2,972

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,773

Max offer price $699,999

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	0.42mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	43d	1	0.53mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	0.53mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	24d	1	0.64mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	0.76mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	24d	1	0.87mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	43d	1	0.89mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.95mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	18d	1	0.96mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	24d	1	1.03mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	20d	1	1.06mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	1.11mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	5d	1	1.27mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	43d	1	1.30mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	43d	1	1.33mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	1.39mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $699,999 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $699,999 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $699,999 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   remarks 296-char remark
5. 2026-06-02
   remarks 290-char remark
6. 2026-06-02
   listed $699,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,180 · $598/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,505 · $792/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,325/yr (+$194/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $114,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$7,180
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,154
• − Management: −$9,154
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable income: $25,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,207
• After-tax cash flow: $29,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+137.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $699,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-10 Price Changed $419,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-07 Price Changed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-03 Price Changed $435,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-03 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-25 Listed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,180 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.