Aragon Dr #93 · Charles Town, WV 25414

$299,807

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Townhouse · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $299k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful York II interior townhome featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 2 half baths. The open-concept main level is enhanced with durable LVP flooring throughout, creating a seamless and modern living space. The gourmet kitchen showcases elegant quartz countertops, stylish pendant lighting over the island, and upgraded cabinetry with crown molding for a refined finish. With thoughtful design details and plenty of room for comfortable living and entertaining, this home offers the perfect blend of style and functionality.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $299,807

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space; 1 total parking space
• Home design: York II Garage plan; Single-family spec home; Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: Aragon Dr #93, Charles Town, WV 25414

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms; 3 total bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (York II Garage plan); Living area approximately 1600

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Charles Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#22 in WV, #3,460 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,339 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Bolingbroke Way	0.24mi	3/3.5	1,600 (0%)	5mo	$299,990	$187	82
89 Bolingbroke Way	0.27mi	3/3.5	1,600 (0%)	4mo	$287,849	$180	82
118 Bolingbroke Way	0.29mi	3/3.5	1,600 (0%)	4mo	$302,421	$189	82
9 Bolingbroke Way	0.21mi	3/3.5	1,600 (0%)	8mo	$298,988	$187	82
58 Bolingbroke Way	0.23mi	3/3.5	1,600 (0%)	7mo	$305,649	$191	81
85 Bolingbroke Way	0.27mi	3/3.5	1,600 (0%)	6mo	$293,990	$184	80
369 Aragon Dr	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,674 (+5%)	1mo	$303,808	$181	80
361 Aragon Dr	0.25mi	3/3.5	1,674 (+5%)	0mo	$324,990	$194	78
128 Bolingbroke Way	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+5%)	2mo	$311,645	$186	78
76 Bolingbroke Way	0.26mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,600 (0%)	7mo	$321,819	$201	76
84 Bolingbroke Way	0.25mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,600 (0%)	7mo	$291,566	$182	75
97 Bolingbroke Way	0.28mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,600 (0%)	6mo	$304,014	$190	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $13,476
• Equity at exit: $129,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $88,042
• Equity at exit: $195,203

Cash invested: $83,946 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25414

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,497/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $253,022

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,952
• Closing costs: $8,994
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27 Towton PL Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,995	$1.29	24d	1	0.23mi
114 Telluride Way Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,090	$1.23	24d	1	0.82mi
135 Telluride Way Charles Town, WV	4.0	3.5	2097	$2,400	$1.14	24d	1	0.85mi
509 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,150	$1.10	24d	1	0.85mi
19 Winterplace Dr Charles Town, WV	4.0	3.5	2095	$2,100	$1.00	13d	1	0.89mi
10 Telluride Way Charles Town, WV	3.0	4.0	2097	$2,300	$1.10	24d	1	0.93mi
470 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,100	$1.08	24d	1	1.02mi
454 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	4.0	1952	$2,100	$1.08	24d	1	1.02mi
439 Seeback Dr Unit 255 Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,100	$1.09	20d	1	1.02mi
458 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,100	$1.08	24d	1	1.02mi
450 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1793	$2,050	$1.14	13d	1	1.02mi
478 Seeback Dr Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,200	$1.13	20d	1	1.02mi
214 Gumspring Dr Charles Town, WV	4.0	2.5	2148	$2,500	$1.16	20d	1	1.29mi
115 Bell Tower Ln Charles Town, WV	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,600	$1.17	2d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,807 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,807 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,807 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,807 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 530-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $299,807 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,794
• − Property taxes: −$4,497
• − Insurance: −$1,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − Depreciation: −$8,722
• Taxable loss: −$9,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,208
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Charles Town

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #3460

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 21,073
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 21,073
• Household income: $105,500
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 296.8007
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0