350 Welsh Rd · Rockfish, NC 28376

$218,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1995 ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

350 Welsh Rd offers country-style living on nearly 2 acres across two combined parcels. This manufactured home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious great room with stone fireplace and gas logs, and a large primary suite with built-in bookcase. The primary bathroom includes dual vanities, soaking tub, and separate shower. The kitchen area connects conveniently to a half bath and laundry room with countertop and cabinet storage. Enjoy additional living space in the sunroom, plus a covered front porch overlooking the well-maintained yard. Outside, the property includes an attached double carport, private driveway, a wired 12x20 storage building with lean-to, and a 16x24 building suit

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1995
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the HOLLY SP subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport for 2 vehicles; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank sewer; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Storage; Porch with front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Propane heating; Has heating; Has fireplace (gas/gas log/propane)
• Interior features: Bookcases; Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Private entrance; Storage; Porch with front porch
• Laundry & utility: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.7% in Rockfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#108 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandy Grove Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 645 students, 99% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,754 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-18,727
• Equity at exit: $32,505

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,138
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $857/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $218,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
157 Presley St Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,900	$1.41	14d	1	0.37mi
111 Ten Acres Trl Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,950	$1.16	23d	1	0.39mi
240 Slade Corner Rd Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,150	$1.21	23d	1	0.71mi
115 Zane Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,900	$1.08	23d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $218,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $218,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $218,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $218,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $218,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $218,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $218,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $218,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $218,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-05-05
    listed $218,000 Active
13. 2025-04-03
    status Active
14. 2025-03-29
    price $265,000
15. 2025-01-08
    price $279,900
16. 2024-10-02
    listed $289,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $857 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,788 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$931/yr (+$78/mo · 108.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$857
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$63
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rockfish

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #6802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-24.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $218,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-04-03 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $265,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $279,900 LPRMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listed $289,900 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $857 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.