40 Pen Haven Dr · West Pensacola, FL 32506

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1953 7,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 40 Pen Haven Drive, Pensacola, FL 32506! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch-style home is the perfect canvas for your dream renovation. Nestled in a quiet residential neighborhood, this fixer-upper offers endless potential for investors or homeowners ready to add their personal touch. Step inside to discover the ideal potential for open-concept living or cozy family gatherings. The generous backyard is perfect for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or creating your own private oasis. With solid bones and a timeless brick exterior, this property is ready for your creative vision. Located just minutes from NAS Pensacola, Corry Station, and the beautiful beaches of the Gulf Coa

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 7.7% in West Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#629 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $85k implies a 687% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.33%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Cherokee Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,587 (-1%)	4mo	$70,000	$44	69
29 Pen Haven Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-13%)	15mo	$179,900	$129	59
29 Nottingham Way	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	8mo	$220,000	$147	55
4606 Yorkshire Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-8%)	3mo	$245,000	$165	54
31 Mohawk Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-1%)	11mo	$210,000	$132	54
220 Dogwood Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-1%)	12mo	$102,000	$64	52
800 N 47th Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (+4%)	3mo	$239,000	$144	51
110 Tomahawk Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-14%)	8mo	$151,000	$110	47
4603 State St	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,566 (-2%)	18mo	$205,000	$131	44
4610 Yorkshire Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-10%)	18mo	$230,000	$159	38
4816 Yorkshire Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,799 (+12%)	17mo	$238,000	$132	33
3 Geronimo Cir	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-13%)	18mo	$220,000	$157	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $42,447
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $113,651
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32506

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $443/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $907	-5% $883	+0% $859	+5% $835	+10% $811
Rent	-10% $722	-5% $790	+0% $859	+5% $928	+10% $997
Rate	-1.0pp $902	-0.5pp $881	base $859	+0.5pp $837	+1.0pp $815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Vanderbilt Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,850	$1.68	22d	1	0.18mi
4519 Martha Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	0.45mi
221 Edison Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,598	$1.07	24d	1	0.87mi
707 New York Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1266	$1,185	$0.94	24d	1	0.90mi
852 Garnet St Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,150	$1.00	14d	1	1.18mi
3296 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	1856	$1,795	$0.97	24d	1	1.22mi
3216 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,700	$1.52	24d	1	1.23mi
3177 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	2244	$1,975	$0.88	24d	1	1.28mi
11 Gunn Cir Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	1894	$2,400	$1.27	14d	1	1.34mi
190 N Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,174	$1.28	14d	3	1.40mi
2702 Massachusetts Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1150	$1,745	$1.52	14d	9	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $85,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Contingent 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Contingent 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Contingent 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Contingent 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Contingent 170 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Contingent 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Contingent 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Contingent 164 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Contingent 163 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Contingent 162 DOM
12. 2025-12-20
    listed Contingent
13. 2025-12-19
    listed $85,000
14. 1969-01-01
    soldstatus $10,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $443 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$263/yr (+$22/mo · 59.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$443
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $9,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,274
• After-tax cash flow: $8,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Pensacola

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #629
• US rank: #12275

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Pensacola, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,549
• Household income: $62,486
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.86%
• Current HPI: 247.6085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+687.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Listed — PARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $85,000 PARMLS
• 1969-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $443 · -13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.