106 Vail Cir · Swartz, LA 71203

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2002 9,147 sqft lot $129/sqft · at area comps Est $200k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3/2 home! Approx. 1,510 HSF, high ceilings, tile floors split bedroom floor plan, open kitchen, dining & living room. Great for 1st time buyers.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; No natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story (entry level: 1); Site-built
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Irregular-shaped lot; Paved road access; Spa/Bath

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double-pane windows with blinds; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($604/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#184 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swartz Lower Elementary School (392 students, 67% FRL); Ouachita Junior High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #169 of 218 statewide, top 78%, 422 students, 80% FRL); Ouachita Parish High School (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #136 of 265 statewide, top 55%, 1,191 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ouachita Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,785 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,493
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -0.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
318 Monarch Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-5%)	1mo	$179,900	$123	82
102 Arapaho Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+7%)	12mo	$199,999	$120	73
305 Colorado Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-7%)	14mo	$180,000	$125	71
212 Vail Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+4%)	23mo	$215,000	$133	69
201 Arapaho Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-8%)	16mo	$175,000	$122	68
119 Daywood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-12%)	5mo	$190,000	$140	64
212 Wood Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-11%)	6mo	$173,000	$125	57
105 Wood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	19mo	$199,900	$119	54
127 Daywood Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+14%)	19mo	$218,500	$123	48
26 Forest Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+10%)	6mo	$180,000	$105	44
34 Chauvin Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-8%)	15mo	$173,500	$122	41
158 Timberlane Dr	0.43mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,770 (+14%)	8mo	$198,000	$112	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,180
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,259
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71203

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,576/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,704

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $107	+0% $50	+5% $-6	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-19	+0% $50	+5% $120	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $101	base $50	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
396 Rowland Rd Monroe, LA	4.0	2.5	2226	$2,500	$1.12	45d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 160-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   status Active 160-char remark
3. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 160-char remark
4. 2026-04-21
   listed $199,900 Active 160-char remark
5. 2016-06-23
   soldstatus $148,000
6. 2004-08-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,576
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$664
• After-tax cash flow: $1,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ouachita Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201200
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $43,316
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5791
• State rank: #26 of 98 in LA

Livability — Swartz

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #14862

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ouachita Parish · 118,340 people
• Metro: Monroe, LA
• Population (ZIP): 38,354
• Household income: $52,326
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2085.0

Population outlook (Ouachita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,370 people
• By 2030: 165,520 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 167,652 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 166,699 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 156,348 · -4.3%
• By 2100: 134,102 · -17.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 45% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ouachita

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+25.4 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.01%
• Current HPI: 206.1948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Monroe, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+35.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) — NELABOR
• 2026-05-06 Pending — NELABOR
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — NELABOR
• 2026-04-22 Pending — NELABOR
• 2026-04-21 Listed $199,900 NELABOR
• 2016-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,576 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.